ES Weekly Plan | May 25-29, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week kicked off with weakness on Monday, resulting in a test of the key level at 7390, marking the prior week’s value area low (VAL) and aligning with the Monthly VWAP. This was a key level for sellers to break and build value below in order to potentially shift the tone. Responsive buyers stepped in on every attempt to gain traction below 7390, and Monday’s session ended with a closing squeeze.
Heading into Tuesday, the daily was one-time framing down, implying a structure of lower highs and lower lows. However, the overall context remained unchanged, as sellers would need not only to establish value lower on the daily timeframe but also on the weekly timeframe, making 7390 a critical level.
Sellers managed to achieve a daily close below 7390 and the Monthly VWAP on Tuesday, ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process. Heading into Wednesday, the key question was whether sellers could reoffer 7390 and defend that level.
The overnight session offered great setups around our key levels from Wednesday’s plan. The first setup was a Look Above and Fail (LAAF) of 7390. An exhaustive move above 7390 was quickly rejected, with aggressive sellers stepping in as the market moved back below the level (see Figure 1).
Rejecting 7390 led to a 30-handle reversal that tested 7360 (DT1), which in turn offered a Look Below and Fail (LBAF) setup (see Figure 2).
Sellers were ultimately unable to defend the 7390 level, leading to a short-covering rally during the Wednesday RTH session, which formed a P-shaped profile and ended the daily structure of lower highs and lower lows.
Thursday’s session was fairly uneventful early on, which was expected as the auction was positioned in the middle of balance (see Figure 3). Change took place in the H-period, when a directional move to the upside was initiated. In the process, last week’s gap at 7479.75 was filled, a pivotal level discussed in the Weekly Plan due to its alignment with the prior week’s value area high (VAH).
The 7479 level was pivotal on Friday, offering a clean reversal after being tagged almost to the tick during the RTH session. Beyond that, it was a session with limited opportunities.
The failure to gain traction below last week’s value area early in the week, which was needed to meaningfully shift the tone, ultimately led to a reversal back in the direction of the prevailing trend.
The key question now is whether the auction is ready to explore higher prices, or if the three stacked weekly VPOCs will act as a magnet and pull price lower (see Figure 4). The weekly is currently in a 2-week balance.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7478.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 2-Week → High: 7540 | Low: 7354.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6514.25
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this shortened week is to monitor the current 2-week balance area, ranging from 7354 to the ATH at 7540, where two-sided activity has developed following a period of one-sided trade.
Note the stacked weekly VPOCs, considered the fairest prices to do business over the past three weeks. Buyers initiated a move away from this HVN at 7420 late last week, making the LVN at 7484 a key level to monitor early in the week.
A bullish development would be defined by value building above this LVN, setting the stage for a revisit of all-time highs and a potential balance breakout attempt. Failure to do so would put the HVN in play as a downside magnet, with a break below opening the door to a test of the balance lows.
For sellers to meaningfully shift the tone, a sustained breakdown below the 2-week balance area would be required.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7484, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7484 would target the ATH at 7540. Acceptance above 7540, indicating a sustained breakout, would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the Monthly Extreme High at 7585, as well as the resistance area between 7635 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7665, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this area is reached, the less favorable it becomes for initiating new longs given the underlying structure.
Break and hold below 7484 would target the high volume node (HVN) at 7420, acting as a downside magnet. Acceptance below 7420 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7360 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7330, where buying activity can be expected. This support area is crucial for buyers to defend, as a sustained breakdown of the 2-week balance area could meaningfully shift the tone.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7484.
Holding above 7484 would target 7540 / 7595 / 7635 / 7665* / 7700
Break and hold below 7484 would target 7420 / 7360 / 7330* / 7299 / 7270
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
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