ES Daily Plan | May 20, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction, discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Trading activity during the overnight session was all over the place, but remained within Monday’s range. Last week’s value area low at 7390 was tested once again, where buyers continued to step in. Overall, it was a choppy overnight session with a lack of clear opportunities.
The RTH session was much better in terms of setups. The initial balance range was relatively wide, highlighted by a white vertical line along the daily profiles on the chart, printing a 46-handle range. A wide IB typically sets the stage for rotational activity if the market struggles to gain traction outside of the IB range. The interesting nuance today was that the final downside target at 7360 (FDT) was tagged in the B-period, raising the question of how attractive it was to chase a potential IB extension lower. Another valuable piece of information was that the VIX remained well below its resistance level at 18.84, implying that chasing shorts around 7360 was unfavorable.
After consolidating around 7360 for a couple of periods, enough shorts were trapped for a squeeze that was initiated in the F-period. The squeeze was capped by 7415 (Smashlevel), and sellers ultimately got the close below last week’s value (7390) and the Monthly VWAP. Today’s profile was b-shaped, and the key question now is whether sellers can follow through to the downside and target the unfilled gap at 7299.75. Note the composite volume profile on the far right of the chart: we are trading at the lower end of this large distribution, implying that initiating selling is required to move lower, and that a lack of seller initiative is enough to attract responsive buyers.
Smashlevels Recap
The daily structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact after today’s session, with sellers managing to close below both last week’s VAL at 7390 and the Monthly VWAP at 7385.
The auction has reached the lower end of a composite distribution, implying that the easy work for sellers is done and that initiating sellers are now required to move price lower.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7415 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7360 (DT1). NVDA earnings tomorrow.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 7390, last week’s VAL. Holding below 7390 would target 7360 (DT1). Acceptance below 7360 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 7327 (DT2), with a final downside target at 7299 (FDT) under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 7390 would shift focus to 7415 (UT1), with a final upside target at 7448 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7390.
Break and hold above 7390 would target 7415 / 7448
Holding below 7390 would target 7360 / 7327 / 7299
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.98 and 17.14. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7448 with VIX below 17.14 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7299 with VIX above 18.98 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! Always quality with you.
Caught my first ever LBAF right at the open on the smashlevel, all thanks to you. May God bless you !