ES Weekly Plan | March 23-27, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week, we transitioned to the ESM26 (June) contract. As a reminder, my charts are not back-adjusted, meaning historical prices remain unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference rather than superiority, as both approaches have their pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is generally minimal, since we navigate the market day by day.
The pattern over the last couple of weeks has been early strength followed by weakness into Friday, and this week followed the same pattern. On Monday and Tuesday, the auction formed higher highs and higher lows, reaching the initial weekly target at 6805, at which point sellers stepped in. The prior week, the high was marked by Tuesday’s session, so the question, of course, was whether last Tuesday would do the same.
The look-above-and-fail at 6805 was beautiful from an order flow perspective: Aggressive buyers attempted to gain traction above the level, but were absorbed by passive sellers. Aggressive sellers then stepped in post-absorption, quickly trapping that buying effort and resulting in a reversal (see Figure 1). This sequence ultimately marked the high of the week, again on a Tuesday.
Wednesday’s session opened on a true gap down, which remained unfilled at 6764.25 and ultimately resulted in a double distribution trend day to the downside. This trend day was followed by another true gap down opening on Thursday, leading to a fill of the roll gap at 6636. Thursday’s gap was eventually filled, but in the process, a notable excess high was formed. In Friday’s daily plan, we discussed the importance of observing this excess high, as it would provide insights into the state of the auction.
On Friday, responsive sellers stepped in within Thursday’s excess high, removing the potential for change. Sellers closed out the week with another trend day to the downside, effectively completing a full 100% range extension from the prior multi-week balance and sweeping the November low in the process (see Figure 2).
The auction is currently in a tricky spot, with the short-term value (5D VPOC) at 6755 and the medium-term value (20D VPOC) at 6880. It’s always tricky to aggressively chase further downside when price is well below these value references, so trade locations should be chosen cautiously. On top of that, the Monthly Extreme Low sits at 6511, and the market is nearly 200 handles below the monthly VWAP, adding another layer of caution for overly optimistic downside expectations.
As often discussed, not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. The market is one-time framing down across all time frames, and we’ve breached the daily MA200. If you are a seller, you want to sell rallies that fail at resistance areas rather than chasing extended moves, which have resulted in pretty vicious counter-moves.
What defines a poor versus a good short trade location? If the market immediately breaks 6511, I would not try to join that move given the poor trade location, even if the market continues downward. The risk is that a look-below-and-fail could trigger a potential short-covering rally. A better environment is if the market breaks 6511, builds value below it, and then attempts to reclaim 6511 but fails. You are shorting the same level, but in a completely different context.
Alternatively, a strong short trade would occur if the market sees an immediate rally and attempts to reclaim a key resistance area, for example, Friday’s afternoon rally high at 6616. That would represent a much better trade location. In that case, the short-term value (5D VPOC) would potentially shift lower in the process.
As always, markets don’t become “overbought” or “oversold.” I would not get involved with these terms. It’s all about whether prices are accepted or rejected. As long as lower prices are accepted, the market can keep moving downward. If you want to be a buyer, you want Friday’s trend day to be quickly negated, meaning you want the auction to reject lower prices and subsequently reclaim a key resistance area, which could provide a better foundation to look for long setups. Picking bottoms is for amateurs, let other traders do that for you.
Obviously, as a short-term trader, you have the ability to be more flexible in either direction. This is more a general observation.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 6643
🟥 Weekly: OTFD → Ends at: 6808.50
🟥 Monthly: OTFD
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
FYI: During rollover, one-time framing and balance can look distorted because of the roll gap. I don’t back-adjust my charts, so expect these concepts to be temporarily skewed.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this week is to monitor whether sellers can maintain downside momentum after Friday’s double distribution trend day, which swept the November low and closed below the daily MA200. The volume profile from the past two weeks shows that value remains unchanged, while sellers have now initiated a move away from it, creating an imbalance between value and price. Whether this move is accepted or rejected will be crucial, making it important to observe where value develops early in the week.
Acceptance below last week’s value area and the breached MA200 would be a bearish development, setting the stage for continued downside pressure in search of value. Friday’s session formed an excess low that sellers aim to quickly reject. The 10% correction level is at 6328.
Failure to do so, with the auction quickly negating Friday’s trend day by reclaiming its afternoon rally high at 6616, would open the door to a counter-trend rally, with the potential to return to last week’s VPOC at 6755.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6616, Friday’s afternoon rally high. Break and hold above 6616 would target the HTF level at 6692. Acceptance above 6692 would signal strength and open the door to a move into the resistance area between 6755 and the Weekly Extreme High at 6785, where selling activity can be expected. The most traded price by volume last week sits within this resistance area at 6755, along with an unfilled gap at 6764.25, acting as an upside magnet in the absence of sustained weakness.
Holding below 6616 would maintain downside pressure and target the Monthly Extreme Low at 6511. Acceptance below 6511 would signal further weakness and open the door for a bearish continuation toward the HTF level at 6446, as well as the support area between 6360 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6330, where buying activity can be expected. This would effectively complete a 10% correction off the all-time highs.
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6616.
Break and hold above 6616 would target 6692 / 6755 / 6785* / 6840 / 6880
Holding below 6616 would target 6511 / 6446 / 6360 / 6330* / 6280
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Love this! Thanks Smash