ES Weekly Plan | June 8-12, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week kicked off with an immediate upside continuation on Monday, tagging the 50% balance extension from the 2-week balance area at 7633, where sellers stepped in. Prior to that, passive buyers successfully absorbed aggressive selling pressure at the key level of 7585 (see Figure 1).
Tuesday’s session formed a P-shaped inside day, with sellers once again stepping in at 7633. The current ATH at 7632.25 is considered weak, making it a reference to carry forward as unfinished business.
Heading into Wednesday’s session, the Smashlevel (Pivot) was Tuesday’s afternoon pullback low at 7615. This level broke during the overnight session, suggesting that Tuesday’s inventory from the main distribution was trapped heading into the RTH session, as discussed on X.
Wednesday’s RTH session immediately tested 7615, where sellers stepped in (see Figure 2). This sequence marked the RTH high, from which a b-shaped profile was established.
On Thursday, the RTH session opened with a true gap down following overnight weakness into the critical HVN from the prior week’s 2-day balance around 7540s, where both last week’s VAL (7537) and last month’s VAH (7528) were located. As discussed all week, a shift in tone required a break of this HVN, which sellers ultimately failed to achieve on Thursday, triggering a short-covering rally.
Heading into Friday, strength would be signaled by a reclaim of 7611, while weakness would be indicated by a failure to defend 7570, as outlined in Friday’s plan. The 7570 level was lost overnight, leading to another test of the HVN. This time, sellers gained traction, resulting in a vicious liquidation break and ending the weekly one-time framing up.
The auction not only reached the expected downside magnet at 7420, but in after-hours trading also fully traversed the prior 2-week balance area, a common target following a failed balance breakout (see Figure 3).
The key question now is whether Friday’s weakness was driven by stronger sellers or weak-handed longs getting flushed. Pullbacks from weak or poor highs in an uptrend are typically driven by the latter rather than by strong selling.
The auction has now reached the lower end of the prior 2-week balance area, typically an area where initiating new shorts is unfavorable. Given the notably poor structure from Friday’s session, including four sets of single prints, any attempt at immediate downside continuation that fails could trigger a short-covering rally. The prior 2-week balance low at 7354 now becomes a key short-term reference.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 7553
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 4-Week → High: 7632.25 / Low: 7354.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key question this week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Friday’s multi-distribution trend day down, which brought an end to the weekly one-time framing up.
Failure to defend the 2-week balance breakout triggered a rotation back toward the 7420 HVN, where multiple weekly VPOCs are stacked, and a full traversal of the balance area. How the auction behaves around the prior 2-week balance low at 7354, now marking the 4-week balance low, early this week will be key in gauging directional intent.
Value building above 7354, while rejecting any immediate downside continuation, would set the stage for a clean-up of Friday’s poor structure toward 7449 and 7515, potential reload areas for sellers. Failure to do so would open the door to filling the gap at 7299.75, where a gap-fill reversal is of interest.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7354, the 4-week balance low. Holding above 7354 would target fills of Friday’s poor structure toward 7449. Acceptance above 7449 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward 7515, as well as the resistance area between 7565 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7595, where selling activity can be expected. A weekly close back within the previous week’s value area would signal strength, confirming that Friday’s weakness was driven by long liquidation rather than stronger sellers.
Break and hold below 7354, implying a 4-week balance breakdown, would target the unfilled gap at 7299. Acceptance below 7299 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7230 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7200, where buying activity can be expected. Note how both the MA50 and YTD Low VWAP are closely aligned with this support, making it a crucial area for buyers to defend. Additionally, a break of this support would end the monthly one-time framing up.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7354.
Holding above 7354 would target 7449 / 7515 / 7565 / 7595* / 7632
Break and hold below 7354 would target 7299 / 7230 / 7200* / 7160 / 7092
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thanks Smash!