ES Weekly Plan | June 1-5, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week kicked off with a holiday session on Monday, during which the market broke out of the 2-week balance area, printing a holiday ATH at 7569.75. The holiday gains retraced during Tuesday’s overnight session, with upside capped at our final intraday target of 7565 (FUT) (see Figure 1).
Tuesday’s RTH session opened within the 2-week balance area, with buyers attempting an early breakout above the balance high at 7540. The attempt failed, triggering a pullback. Although a failed balance breakout typically signals weakness, stronger sellers were absent, which provided valuable market-generated information, and a bounce developed into the closing session.
On Wednesday, the auction continued to rotate around 7540, and sellers continued to struggle to gain downside traction despite Tuesday’s Look Above and Fail at 7540. The Smashlevel for the session was 7519, offering great reversal opportunities (see Figures 2 and 3). Ultimately, a 2-day balance formed heading into Thursday.
The 2-day balance was considered a bullish consolidation until proven otherwise, and Thursday’s session confirmed that view with a breakout. A new ATH was printed, taking out the holiday ATH in the process. It was interesting to observe how liquidity was stacking below Thursday’s Smashlevel at 7524 before the breakout (see Figure 4). It’s important to understand that resting liquidity alone does not define support or resistance, but it can serve as confirmation that an identified level was a meaningful reference for other market participants as well.
Friday’s session saw a continuation to the upside, establishing value cleanly higher and shifting the short-term value (5D VPOC) from 7536 to 7596. Value continues to follow price. The week and month were ultimately capped by the Monthly Extreme High at 7595.
Reminder: markets don’t become “overbought” or “oversold.” I would avoid using those terms. It’s all about whether prices are accepted or rejected. As long as higher prices are being accepted, the market can continue to move higher.
The key question now is whether buyers can sustain this 2-week balance breakout, making the high volume node from Tuesday–Wednesday’s consolidation crucial to defend, as it aligns with the 2-week balance highs.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7577.50
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 7515
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following last week’s breakout from the 2-week balance. The auction is one-time framing up across all timeframes, with higher highs and higher lows on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, signaling continued strength until proven otherwise.
The most bullish response would involve accepting the breakout through continued value building above the 2-week balance area, while defending the high volume node (HVN) formed early last week, which also aligns with last week’s VAL and last month’s VAH. This would keep the broader context unchanged and target balance extensions.
A shift in tone would require a failure to defend the critical HVN, ending the weekly OTFU and bringing a failed breakout scenario into play. This would open the door to short-term weakness and a rotation back toward the HVN in the 7420 area, where three weekly VPOCs are closely stacked, acting as a downside magnet.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7585, a low volume node (LVN). Holding above 7585 would target the 50% balance extension at 7633. Acceptance above 7633 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7720 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7750, where selling activity can be expected.
This would effectively complete the 100% balance extension of the prior 2-week balance area. Additionally, a notable HTF level is located within this resistance at 7735, adding another layer of significance. The more impulsively this area is reached, the less favorable it becomes for initiating new longs given the underlying structure.
Break and hold below 7585 would target technical fills of the poor structure toward last week’s VAL at 7537. Acceptance below 7537, indicating a failed breakout, would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7450 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7420, where buying activity can be expected.
The three stacked weekly VPOCs in the 7420 area are likely to act as a downside magnet on a failed breakout, a crucial area for buyers to defend to avoid a full traverse of the prior 2-week balance area.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7585.
Holding above 7585 would target 7633 / 7720 / 7750* / 7790 / 7830
Break and hold below 7585 would target 7537 / 7450 / 7420* / 7355 / 7299
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thanks Smash! Great stuff.