ES Weekly Plan | August 25-29, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review & Bonus Chart
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review & Bonus Chart
Last week’s plan: ES Weekly Plan | August 18-22, 2025
Heading into last week, the main focus was on whether buyers could sustain upside momentum following the prior week’s breakout from the multi-week balance area. Immediate attention was on the 3-day balance area between 6502.50 and 6461.50.
A strong market would remain within the 3-day balance, showing no interest in retesting the multi-week balance area—signaling further acceptance of higher prices and favoring an upside continuation. A less bullish scenario would involve a 3-day balance breakdown, prompting a retest of the weekly balance area, where buyers could defend it. Acceptance within the weekly balance area below 6451, however, would open the door to short-term weakness.
The market kicked off the week with a notably quiet session on Monday, printing a narrow 18-handle range. Sellers managed to break the 3-day balance low, but failed to generate meaningful downside traction, resulting in a close back within the balance area. No meaningful setups emerged aside from pure orderflow scalping. I particularly liked the reversal in the I-period (see Figure 1).
Change took place on Tuesday, as sellers shifted the short-term tone with a decisive 3-day balance breakdown. In the process, the market cleaned up some poor structure from the prior week and closed the session back within the multi-week balance area, opening the door to short-term weakness.
Heading into Wednesday’s session, the key was to monitor for continuation or lack thereof, as is typical with any move away from balance. Building value lower would signal weakness and acceptance of the breakdown, while a return within the 3-day balance area would indicate strength and rejection of it. Wednesday’s session opened with an immediate continuation lower, adding downside pressure. In the process, the weekly one-time framing up ended, and the weekly support area between 6375 and 6345 was tagged.
Notice how both Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s sessions saw responsive buying at the FDT—the final intraday downside targets. These levels are worth monitoring for reversals when the broader trend is up, as they’re typically poor locations to chase shorts against the prevailing trend.
On Thursday, an inside day formed, with all trading contained within Wednesday’s range, suggesting short-term balance. This was considered a bearish consolidation in the context of Tuesday’s 3-day balance breakdown.
Heading into Friday’s session, the market could either continue to build at lower prices—opening the door for downside continuation—or fail to do so, which could spark a short-covering rally. For downside continuation, sellers needed to break and hold below 6376, while buyers aimed to reclaim 6420 to trigger short-covering, as discussed in Friday’s Plan.
It was interesting to observe that the short-term value (5D VPOC) remained at 6470 even after Thursday’s session. Failure to gain traction below 6376 ultimately resulted in a short-covering rally back to the prior 3-day balance—powered by Powell! (see Figure 2).
Now that we are back within the 3-day balance area, the situation is very similar to last week; however, the key difference is that the pullback may have attracted stronger buyers, potentially allowing the market to resolve the unfinished business above at the untested overnight all-time high of 6508.75.
I will continue to include the HTF chart from a good friend of mine (see Figure 3), featuring levels generated by one of his models at the start of 2025. As you can see, price action this year has respected these levels remarkably well.
The market is currently battling for control of the 6421–6401 area of interest. As long as acceptance is not established below this area, maintaining a bearish bias is tricky.
Only acceptance back below the 6421–6401 area—which would also negate Friday’s upside move—has the potential to introduce short-term weakness. This scenario would open the door to testing the prior all-time high from earlier this year, roughly aligned with the 6142–6122 area, which also marks the year’s value area high.
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟨 Daily: BALANCE → 10-Day → High: 6502.50 / Low: 6362.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 2-Week → High: 6502.50 / Low: 6362.75
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6227.50
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
This week, the main focus is on the current 2-week balance area, ranging from 6362.75 to the RTH ATH at 6502.50. Unfinished business remains above, marked by the untested overnight ATH at 6508.75. Immediate attention is on whether Friday’s notable short-covering rally will be accepted or rejected, making it crucial to monitor where value develops early in the week.
Consolidation at the upper end of the range would signal strength, favoring an upside continuation aimed at resolving the unfinished business and the weak high developing on the daily chart.
A less bullish outcome would involve a partial fill of Friday’s large set of single prints, with buyers ideally defending the 6451 level, which represents both a prior high and Friday’s halfback.
Failure to do so would signal weakness, opening the door for a full retrace of Friday’s move and potentially a return to the range lows—a higher low crucial for buyers to defend.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6451—the prior 6-week balance high and Friday’s halfback. Holding above 6451 would target both the RTH all-time high at 6502.50 and the untested overnight all-time high at 6508.75, which remains unfinished business. Acceptance above 6502.50, indicating a successful breakout, would signal strength and open the door for a move into the resistance area between 6585 and the Weekly Extreme High of 6605, where selling activity can be expected.
Break and hold below 6451 would question Friday’s rally. Acceptance below 6451 would target a move into the support area between 6385 and the Weekly Extreme Low of 6365, where buying activity can be expected. This support aligns with the 2-week balance low—a critical area for buyers to defend. Failure to hold it would open the door for a test of the prior 6-week balance low—consistent with the principle that failed breakouts typically target the opposite side of balance.
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6451.
Holding above 6451 would target 6502-08 / 6585 / 6605* / 6660 / 6700
Break and hold below 6451 would target 6385 / 6365* / 6323 / 6280 / 6224
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thanks Smash!
Thank you