ES Daily Plan | November 4, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
On Thursday, the market saw a breakdown from the weekly balance area following a notable true gap to the downside, effectively shifting both the daily and weekly to one-time framing down. Friday’s session formed an inside day, signaling short-term balance as the market digests the move. Balance guidelines apply to both the inside day range and Thursday’s range, representing the lower distribution from the previous week. The previous week’s VPOC remained within the upper distribution (5870), highlighting the importance for sellers, who remain in short-term control, to continue establishing value lower.
The general balance guideline suggests going with the break of the 2-day balance area and monitoring for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). If there is a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction.
As outlined in the Weekly Plan, the lower distribution, treatable as a 2-day balance area, is of short-term interest. Responsive, two-sided activity is expected within this range, while a directional session would require acceptance outside it.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5772, marking a LVN. Holding below this level would target Thursday’s spike base at 5747. Acceptance below 5747 would then target the prior ATH (non-back-adjusted) at 5721, with a final target at 5697 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5772 would target the prior 2-week balance low at 5801, with a final target at 5820 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5772.
Break and hold above 5772 would target 5801 / 5820
Holding below 5772 would target 5747 / 5721 / 5697
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.54 and 20.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5820 with VIX below 20.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5697 with VIX above 23.54 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you buddy! Let’s have a tremendous week.
THANK YOU..