ES Weekly Plan | Oct 28 - Nov 1, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 5D | 5908.50-5801
🟨 WEEKLY: BALANCE | 2W | 5925-5801
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5410.25
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the potential for change centered around the 5850 level, which marked the prior week’s low. Sellers broke through that level on Wednesday, effectively ending the weekly one-time framing up and testing the weekly support area highlighted in the previous week’s plan. On Thursday, the market formed an inside day, which saw a break to the upside on Friday. However, Friday’s true gap higher failed, ultimately resulting in a double distribution trend day to the downside and leading to a third consecutive close below 5850. Note where the most traded price by volume from the previous week was (5849), confirming the importance of the 5850 level. A strong market will reject Friday’s trend day and find acceptance above the 5860/5850 area, while failure to do so will maintain downside pressure.
For this week, the main focus will be on sellers' ability to sustain downside pressure following the cessation of the weekly one-time framing up and Friday’s failed true gap higher, which led to a close below the prior week's low of 5850—a key level to monitor going forward. Immediate attention will be on Friday’s double distribution trend day to the downside, which will be discussed in more detail in the daily plan. Numerous earnings reports this week, including META 0.00%↑, GOOGL 0.00%↑, AAPL 0.00%↑, MSFT 0.00%↑, and AMZN 0.00%↑, along with PCE data on Thursday and NFP on Friday, are setting the stage for an increase in volatility.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5860/5850, representing both a low volume node (LVN) from the previous week and the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution, as well as the level that ended the weekly one-time framing up (OTFU). Break and hold above 5860 would signal strength, targeting the ON ATH at 5927.25 (unfinished business). Acceptance above 5927.25, indicating a successful breakout, would then target the resistance area from 5970 to the Weekly Extreme High of 6000, where selling activity can be expected.
Holding below 5850 would signal weakness, targeting the support area from 5801 to the high volume node (HVN) at 5785. Acceptance below 5785 would then target the support area from 5730 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5700, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the lower end of the prior 2-week balance area, the MA50, and the prior ATH at 5721.25, making it a crucial area for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5860/5850.
Break and hold above 5860 would target 5927 / 5970 / 6000* / 6030 / 6060
Holding below 5850 would target 5801 / 5785 / 5730 / 5700* / 5665
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Thanks Smash! Should be a very interesting week ahead.
Thank you always.