ES Weekly Plan | November 4-8, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟥 DAILY: OTFD | ENDS: 5803.75
🟥 WEEKLY: OTFD | ENDS: 5886.75
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5724
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the market remained relatively quiet from Monday to Wednesday, trading within the range established on the prior Friday. Change took place on Thursday when the market experienced a notable true gap to the downside, shifting both the daily and weekly to one-time framing down and effectively forming a double distribution on the weekly profile. Friday’s session stayed completely within Thursday’s range, forming an inside day. With both the 5D and 20D VPOC remaining within the upper distribution, the key question early in the week will be how effectively sellers can accept prices in the lower distribution, with the primary objective of shifting the 5D VPOC (short-term value) lower. The lower distribution can be treated as a 2-day balance, where general balance guidelines can be applied.
The general balance guideline suggests going with the break of the 2-day balance area and monitoring for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). If there is a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether sellers can sustain the directional move away from the prior 2-week balance area, following Thursday’s true gap lower that ultimately established a double distribution on the weekly profile. Immediate attention will be on the lower distribution, treatable as a 2-day balance area. The weakest market response would involve remaining within the lower distribution and further accepting Thursday’s gap lower, potentially setting the stage for a downside continuation. Conversely, the strongest response would involve rejecting Thursday’s shift in tone and returning to the upper distribution, where the most traded price by volume for the week remained. With the election on Tuesday and the FOMC on Thursday, it goes without saying: stay nimble.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5747, representing Thursday’s spike base. Holding above 5747 would target the upper end of the lower distribution at 5801, which aligns with the prior weekly balance low. Acceptance above 5801 signals strength, targeting the unfilled daily gap at 5845.50 and the resistance area from 5870 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5900, where selling activity can be expected. Note that both the 5D and 20D VPOC are located at 5870, acting as an upside magnet in the absence of weakness.
Break and hold below 5747 signals weakness, targeting the weekly NVPOC at 5697. Acceptance below 5697 would then target the support area from 5645 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5615, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the 90D VPOC (long-term value), the roll gap at 5629.75, and the 5% correction level, making it a highly significant area to monitor.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5747.
Holding above 5747 would target 5801 / 5845 / 5870 / 5900* / 5927
Break and hold below 5747 would target 5697 / 5645 / 5615* / 5585 / 5560
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Thank you buddy! Great as always. Sorry was ill over the past few months but now I’m back.
Super beautiful plan, Smash. I’ll closely keep an eye on the monthly OTFU for my SPY swings but intraday activity with ES is my number one focus considering market-generated info ahead. 👌🤩🤩