ES Daily Plan | March 25, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
In the daily plan for March 11, we discussed how the risk-reward profile for chasing shorts was unfavorable, and this was reiterated in the daily plan for March 12. The market bottomed on March 13, and now, after today’s break from balance, we are trading 260 handles higher (SPX). The key question now is whether the March 13 low marks a long-term bottom—something no one can know for certain. What is clear, however, is that sellers first need acceptance back within the prior 5-day balance area to potentially trigger another leg to the downside, meaning that the presence—or absence—of initiating buyers will dictate the outcome.
The overnight session was characterized by strength, fueled by tariff relief, immediately testing the 5750-5760 resistance area after gapping higher. While this area initially stalled upside momentum, buyers managed to break through, triggering further upside pressure. The final upside target at 5786 was tagged pre-open, where the market established a distribution.
The 5786 level became the short-term pivot in the RTH session, as noted in the pre-open post on X. The key question was how much of the poor structure from the overnight session would be filled once RTH opened, providing clues about the strength of this breakout attempt. Poor structure during breakout scenarios is generally less likely to be filled compared to poor structure within balance. Opening with a true gap up, showing limited interest below the opening level, and subsequently breaking the ON high within the first 10 minutes of RTH signaled strength. The VIX held above its support level of 18.32, not confirming the break of 5786, which always makes it tricky to chase. However, today was a break from balance, and chasing buyers got paid. The extended target area from 5813 to 5823 was tagged in the F-period, stalling the upside momentum.
Five days of responsive activity have shifted to initiating activity following today’s break from balance after gapping higher. As with any breakout scenario, the main focus is to closely monitor for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). Higher or unchanged value would signal a bullish response, while losing today’s opening level would raise questions. A drop below 5760 would signal a bearish development.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5819, marking the M-period spike base. Holding below this level targets the support area between 5795 and 5786, with a final downside target at 5760 under sustained selling pressure. On the flip side, reclaiming 5819 would signal continued strength, targeting 5840, with a final upside target at 5865 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5819.
Break and hold above 5819 would target 5840 / 5865
Holding below 5819 would target 5795 / 5786 / 5760
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 18.34 and 16.62. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5865 with VIX below 16.62 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5760 with VIX above 18.34 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Loving the probable scenarios. Much appreciated, brother! 🙏
Thank you!