ES Daily Plan | March 18, 2026
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
A quick reminder: I’ve switched to the ESM26 (June) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 6636 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
“Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which results in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference—neither approach is inherently better, as both have pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is generally minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. I typically scale back activity during rollover periods, as order flow tends to become noticeably less reliable.”
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session was marked by weakness during the Asian hours, with sellers gaining traction below the Smashlevel at 6740 and taking out Monday’s poor low in the process. The initial downside target at 6716 (DT1) was tested, where buyers stepped in. As discussed: “Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6772, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold of 6716.” Buyers’ defense of 6716 led to strength during the European session, with a reclaim of 6740 triggering a pre-open squeeze that tagged and exceeded the initial upside target at 6772 (UT1).
The strength carried into the RTH session, with an immediate continuation higher to test 6805 (UT2). Aggressive buyers attempted to gain traction above the level but were absorbed by passive sellers. Aggressive sellers then stepped in post-absorption, quickly trapping that buying effort and resulting in a reversal (see Figure 1). This sequence marked the high of today’s session. The remainder of the session was uneventful, typical of a rollover week, with order flow activity mostly noise. The 6772 (UT1) level produced a few good bounces in the afternoon session; however, buyers were never able to reclaim the opening level.
Today’s session established value above Monday’s value area following a higher high and higher low, yet, like last Tuesday, it closed back within Monday’s range.
The key question now is whether buyers can avoid last week’s outcome, in which Tuesday’s session marked the high of the week.
FOMC is on deck tomorrow! Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 6805, while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold of 6756.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6787, the afternoon rally high. Holding below 6787 would target Monday’s VPOC at 6756 (DT1). Acceptance below 6756 would signal intraday weakness, targeting 6720 (DT2), with a final downside target at 6692 (FDT), the HTF level, under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6787 would shift focus to 6805 (UT1), with a final upside target at 6839 (FUT) under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6787.
Break and hold above 6787 would target 6805 / 6839
Holding below 6787 would target 6756 / 6720 / 6692
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 23.92 and 20.84. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6839 with VIX below 20.84 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6692 with VIX above 23.92 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Great analysis from yesterday Smash.
ES has felt really noisy lately. Choppy, messy order flow, ignition algos interrupting price action, better moves during ETH than RTH, lots of three steps forward two steps back. This afternoon was bang your head against the wall until you pass out and stop trading. Sign of the times perhaps.
Great analysis and review, I have a question, what tool/program do you use for charting?