ES Daily Plan | June 27, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | June 23-27, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session saw an immediate continuation higher, highlighting the notable strength of this upside imbalance following Tuesday’s break from balance. The market quickly reached the initial upside target—the resistance area between the prior all-time high (ATH) at 6166.50 and the Weekly Extreme High—our final weekly upside target. Upside momentum stalled within this resistance area, as the market established a distribution. As discussed, with the VIX below 17, a break above 6175 would be supported—making fading that move less favorable.
The RTH session opened with a true gap up into the resistance area—completely outside of Wednesday’s range. The A-period remained within the overnight distribution, filled the gap, and subsequently reversed—a bullish outcome, given the lack of interest in returning to the prior day’s range. This was the first clear clue not to fight the trend. The second came with the relatively narrow initial balance and the subsequent IB extension to the upside in the C-period. Generally, a narrow IB is not favorable to fade—especially when the extension aligns with the prevailing trend. Today’s IB high lined up perfectly with 6175 (UT1), making it an ideal location to seek long setups for a continuation higher (see Figure 1).
The pullback came in the E-period, finding responsive buyers within the B-period single prints, which ended up only being partially filled—another bullish sign. The market steadily grinded higher throughout the session, tagging the final upside target (FUT) at 6200 to the tick during the closing M-period, thus completing the bullish scenario above 6175. Futures reached a new ATH, whereas the SPX came just shy of making one.
The transition from balance to imbalance is a critical moment in market development—a shift from indecision and uncertainty to direction and intent. Identifying this shift early allows us to align with momentum and position against trapped inventory. Tuesday’s session marked a break from balance, as previously discussed, and the imbalance phase has been in full effect since. A very strong market continues to establish value higher, while a move back within today’s initial balance (IB) could open the door for a move back to the HVN at 6146.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6198. Holding below 6198 would target 6175 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6146 under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6198, would continue the phase of imbalance toward 6225 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6250 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6198.
Break and hold above 6198 would target 6225 / 6250
Holding below 6198 would target 6175 / 6146
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.48 and 15.70. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6250 with VIX below 15.70 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6146 with VIX above 17.48 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
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