Smash, I have a question on a comment you made on your chart for this day, 11/30/22. How do you determine it was a passive buyer instead of seller when the selling was so much larger and red in your chart at 3950. The delta on that bar is negative. If it was a passive buyer how do we determine that by looking at that delta bar that compared to the other buying positive delta bars you point out higher in the distribution. Can you elaborate on what I am missing thinking it was selling and not a passive buyer. I show 5138/412 at 3950 in B period. Thank you!!
Smash, thank you for the response. Your answer makes sense when I think about it as you state. For someone to be selling the contract someone has to be buying it.
I have a follow up question though. How do you determine passive vs. active buyers? Is the answer just as simple as the size of the delta? On this day, 11/30 at 3850 when the selling was so large it had to be passive buyers. With a smaller delta it describes more more of a two sided trade (active vs passive)?
I determine that just by looking at the color of the delta profile.
Blue color is always aggressive buyers, regardless of the size.
Red color is always aggressive sellers, regardless of the size.
So the big red color on 11/30 was aggressive sellers, but note how they were not able to move price lower and got absorbed by passive buyers. To move price lower, sellers need more size but they simply ran out of ammo, meaning we started moving in the other direction (up).
Footprint gave clear signals at 3943--buying imbalances, poor low, leaning against weekly support. Obvious trade in retrospect, but I had a short from E-period and didn't pivot long. Ironically, if I hadn't been in the short, the long from 3943 would have been an easy trade to jump into. I was biased due to current position.
Thanks for the re-caps Smash. Great learning material!
Today’s initial flush down to 3950 upon the JPow dovish remarks and the subsequent rip above was a thing of beauty. Basically a study in “first wave is the algo wave” theory. The true move and retest of 85-86 from above happened almost immediately afterward as you call out. Excellent work as always!
Thanks Smash. Great advice about staying off Twitter too on days like today. Really upset with myself over how I handled today's trades. I keep trying to get better, hopefully I'll figure this out soon.
Turning off social media while actively trading is always recommended. All you really need to know is the action in front of you. Trying to look for clues on Twitter is usually very inefficient, not to mention the amount of large accounts that are completely reckless with their followers money. Stay sharp and keep up the grind.
I like TPO charts because they give you a sense of structure, but volume and pace gives you intent. Volume is always superior and gives you precision while structure gives you clarity, so they obviously make a great team.
In range trading, I tend to rely on TPO for value area traverses, but you still need volume/order flow to confirm your entries, meaning if you sell VAH, it's because you got an order flow signal, and not a TPO signal. I track both VPOC and TPOC references.
Smash, I have a question on a comment you made on your chart for this day, 11/30/22. How do you determine it was a passive buyer instead of seller when the selling was so much larger and red in your chart at 3950. The delta on that bar is negative. If it was a passive buyer how do we determine that by looking at that delta bar that compared to the other buying positive delta bars you point out higher in the distribution. Can you elaborate on what I am missing thinking it was selling and not a passive buyer. I show 5138/412 at 3950 in B period. Thank you!!
Aggressive sellers are selling into Passive Buyers = Red
Aggressive buyers are buying from Passive Sellers = Blue
Smash, thank you for the response. Your answer makes sense when I think about it as you state. For someone to be selling the contract someone has to be buying it.
I have a follow up question though. How do you determine passive vs. active buyers? Is the answer just as simple as the size of the delta? On this day, 11/30 at 3850 when the selling was so large it had to be passive buyers. With a smaller delta it describes more more of a two sided trade (active vs passive)?
I determine that just by looking at the color of the delta profile.
Blue color is always aggressive buyers, regardless of the size.
Red color is always aggressive sellers, regardless of the size.
So the big red color on 11/30 was aggressive sellers, but note how they were not able to move price lower and got absorbed by passive buyers. To move price lower, sellers need more size but they simply ran out of ammo, meaning we started moving in the other direction (up).
Footprint gave clear signals at 3943--buying imbalances, poor low, leaning against weekly support. Obvious trade in retrospect, but I had a short from E-period and didn't pivot long. Ironically, if I hadn't been in the short, the long from 3943 would have been an easy trade to jump into. I was biased due to current position.
Thanks for the re-caps Smash. Great learning material!
Today’s initial flush down to 3950 upon the JPow dovish remarks and the subsequent rip above was a thing of beauty. Basically a study in “first wave is the algo wave” theory. The true move and retest of 85-86 from above happened almost immediately afterward as you call out. Excellent work as always!
Thanks Smash. Great advice about staying off Twitter too on days like today. Really upset with myself over how I handled today's trades. I keep trying to get better, hopefully I'll figure this out soon.
Turning off social media while actively trading is always recommended. All you really need to know is the action in front of you. Trying to look for clues on Twitter is usually very inefficient, not to mention the amount of large accounts that are completely reckless with their followers money. Stay sharp and keep up the grind.
Thanks for the advice and everything you do Smash 🙏
What do you follow closer, VPOC/Vol Value or TPOC/Time Value?
I like TPO charts because they give you a sense of structure, but volume and pace gives you intent. Volume is always superior and gives you precision while structure gives you clarity, so they obviously make a great team.
In range trading, I tend to rely on TPO for value area traverses, but you still need volume/order flow to confirm your entries, meaning if you sell VAH, it's because you got an order flow signal, and not a TPO signal. I track both VPOC and TPOC references.
I see thanks
Hi. Thanks for sharing! What’s MGI? Thanks!
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