ES Weekly Plan | October 21-25, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 5D | 5925-5850
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5850
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5410.25
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the main focus was on the buyers' ability to sustain the breakout from the prior 2-week balance area, which they ultimately succeeded in doing. Monday’s session opened with a gap higher, but sellers managed to fill it during Tuesday’s session, closing back within the prior week’s range, creating an opening for potential weakness. However, the market showed no interest in remaining within the previous week’s range and instead reversed, printing a new ATH in both the RTH (5925) and overnight sessions (5927.25). The 100% range extension from the prior 2-week balance area was effectively completed at 5930. Friday’s session formed an inside day, which is of immediate interest this week. Buyers remain in control, with the monthly and weekly one-time framing up, while the daily is currently in a 5-day balance, with the balance low serving as a reference that has potential for change.
For this week, the main focus will be on the current 5-day balance area between 5925 and 5850, where the market is consolidating after the breakout from the weekly balance on October 9th. Buyers remain in firm control of the auction, as value has been consistently established at higher prices. The upper end of this balance area holds unfinished business, highlighted by the ATH set during the overnight session at 5927.25. Meanwhile, the lower end at 5850 is crucial, as a sustained break could signal a potential shift in market tone, marking the end of the weekly one-time framing up. Balance guidelines apply, with immediate attention on Friday’s inside day.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5887, representing the low of Friday’s inside day, closely aligning with the weekly value support. Holding above 5887 signals strength and targets the ON ATH at 5927.25. Acceptance above 5927.25, indicating a successful breakout, would then target the 50% range extension at 5963, and the resistance area from 6000 to the Weekly Extreme High of 6030, where selling activity can be expected. The 100% range extension aligns with the 6000 level, providing confluence.
Break and hold below 5887 would target the 5-day balance low at 5850. Acceptance below 5850, indicating a successful breakdown, would target the support area from 5815 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5785, where buying activity can be expected. The 5850 level also represents the previous week’s low, meaning that if breached, it would end the weekly one-time framing up. Additionally, note how this support area coincides with the 20D VPOC (medium-term value), which is a crucial high volume node for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5887.
Holding above 5887 would target 5927 / 5963 / 6000 / 6030* / 6060
Break and hold below 5887 would target 5850 / 5815 / 5785* / 5730 / 5700
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Thank you Smash! HAGW!