ES Weekly Plan | November 18-22, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟥 DAILY: OTFD | ENDS: 5941.75
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5876.75
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5724
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the main focus was on the prior week’s triple distribution profile, with particular attention given to its upper distribution. Monday kicked off with a new ATH during both the overnight session and RTH session; however, the overnight ATH at 6053.25 remained untested, making it a reference to carry forward. The market returned to balance on Tuesday, following the cessation of the daily one-time framing up, and Wednesday’s session saw two-sided trading, forming an inside day and a 5-day balance area. As discussed throughout the week, the market accepting higher prices following the directional move after the election was a bullish development. The only potential for a shift in this narrative would come from a breakdown of the balance and acceptance within the middle distribution. Thursday’s session saw a break below the balance area, closing at its lower extreme. On Friday, a downside continuation unfolded, marked by a significant true gap lower, which ultimately tagged the MA20 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 5900 (Settlement 5896.50).
For this week, the main focus will be on last week’s double distribution profile, established after Friday’s true gap down. Immediate attention will be on Friday’s range, marking the lower distribution, which is situated in a particularly interesting location around the prior ATH. Above, there is an unfilled gap at 5968.75, along with unfinished business marked by the overnight ATH at 6053.25. On the downside, we have an unfilled gap at 5813.50 and a weak area at 5724. The key question now is what the market wants to prioritize, making Friday’s range crucial for clues. While the long-term trend is up, short-term control favors sellers below the prior ATH of 5925, which coincides with the Monthly VWAP.
The weekly Smashlevel is 5925, representing the prior ATH and coinciding with the Monthly VWAP. Break and hold above 5925 signals strength, targeting the unfilled daily gap at 5968.75. Acceptance above 5968.75 would then target the resistance area from 6000 to the Weekly Extreme High of 6025, where selling activity can be expected. This resistance area, which includes the Monthly VPOC and the 5D VPOC (short-term value), serves as an upside magnet in the absence of initiating sellers.
Holding below 5925 would target Friday’s low at 5876, coinciding with the 20D VPOC. Acceptance below 5876 signals weakness, targeting the unfilled daily gap at 5813.50 and the support area from 5800 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5775, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the 90D VPOC (long-term value) at 5785, with the MA50 slightly above.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5925.
Break and hold above 5925 would target 5968 / 6000 / 6025* / 6053 / 6095
Holding below 5925 would target 5876 / 5813 / 5800 / 5775* / 5721
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Excellent work, Smash. Just like recently with weekly key levels, especially 5724 held and hitting 6000. I’ll focused on weekly plan for potential SPY swings again. In case the upcoming activity develops in a tight balance range with no clear directional move, ES intraday plays will be way to go until a confirmed breakout 🤞
Thank you, buddy. Yesterday had some losses but then recovered in green!