ES Weekly Plan | November 11-15, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟩 DAILY: OTFU | ENDS: 6004.75
🟨 WEEKLY: BALANCE | 1W | 6040.50-5724.25
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5724
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, early weakness failed to continue lower after the monthly one-time framing up held by just one tick. We carry forward the 5724 level as weak. While Tuesday’s session saw a short-covering rally, the major upside move came after the election. Wednesday’s session saw a significant true gap higher, effectively printing a new ATH and pushing above the highlighted weekly resistance area, which was successfully defended on the retest. Another gap higher was established on Thursday, as the market maintained its upside momentum, resulting in a triple distribution on the weekly profile. Generally, as long as the middle distribution holds, buyers remain in control. The 5D VPOC (short-term value) shifted higher on Friday, from 5767 to 5995.
For this week, the main focus will be on the last week’s triple distribution profile, established after Wednesday’s and Thursday’s true gaps higher, both of which remain unfilled. Particular attention will be on the upper distribution, where Friday’s session closed and the weekly VPOC is located (5995). The strongest market response would involve maintaining within the upper distribution, favoring continued price exploration higher. Failure to do so would target a test of the middle distribution, effectively filling the gap at 5967—a key level to monitor for buying activity. A less bullish scenario would involve acceptance within the middle distribution; however, as long as the highlighted support area between 5925 and 5900 holds, buyers remain in control. Trouble would start to kick in with a drop below 5900. CPI data is scheduled for release on Wednesday, followed by PPI on Thursday and Retail Sales on Friday.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6014, representing a LVN (low volume node) within the upper distribution. Holding above 6014 would target the current ATH at 6040.50. Acceptance above 6040.50 signals strength, targeting the Monthly Extreme High 6095 and the resistance area from 6125 to the Weekly Extreme High of 6150, where selling activity can be expected. Both 6095 and 6150 are levels that are unfavorable to chase in the event of an immediate upside continuation.
Break and hold below 6014 would target the unfilled gap at 5967. Acceptance below 5967 would then target a traverse of the middle distribution toward the support area from 5925 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5900, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the prior ATH at 5925, which served as the launching point for price exploration into uncharted territory—a crucial area for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6014.
Holding above 6014 would target 5040 / 6095 / 6125 / 6150* / 6180
Break and hold below 6014 would target 5967 / 5925 / 5900* / 5870 / 5813
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Thanks for sharing your insights. A tricky weekahead for daytraders after such a rally last week.
Thanks Smashelito!