ES Weekly Plan | November 17-21, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review & Bonus Chart
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review & Bonus Chart
Last week’s plan:
Heading into this week, the main focus was on whether sellers could sustain downside pressure following last week’s achievements: filling both recent gaps, ending the weekly higher-lows pattern, and closing back within the prior multi-week balance area—shifting the market tone. Immediate attention was on the 6790 area, a key reference with multiple confluences.
A weak market would remain within the prior multi-week balance, keeping overhead inventory trapped and favoring a test of the opposite side of the balance—a must-hold area for buyers. Sellers’ next objective was to end the monthly higher-lows pattern at 6591.75.
Failure to sustain downside pressure—acceptance back above 6790—would have signaled strength, negating Thursday and Friday’s weakness and setting the stage for a potential revisit of the all-time high, where unfinished business remains.
Monday kicked off the week by immediately negating the weakness from Thursday and Friday, reclaiming the crucial 6790 level after sustaining a true gap up. Price then returned to the prior 3-day balance area between 6913 and 6843.
Monday’s Auction
Tuesday’s session was marked by two-sided activity early on, before a continuation higher unfolded, effectively forming a double distribution trend day in the process. The session closed within the value area of the prior 3-day balance, meaning the door remained open for a full traverse of that value area—as long as buyers could defend the trend-day structure.
Tuesday’s Auction
The value area traverse was completed during Wednesday’s overnight session, tagging the 6900 level where a reversal unfolded after aggressive buyers were absorbed by passive sellers (see Figure 1). This sequence ultimately marked the high of the week, as weakness dominated the sessions that followed.
Wednesday’s Auction
The daily was one-time framing up heading into Thursday’s session, indicating that buyers were in short-term control. When you know who controls the short-term auction, it becomes crucial to identify what must occur for that tone to shift. In Thursday’s plan, we discussed that for the tone to shift, sellers needed to end the daily OTFU and accept back within Tuesday’s lower distribution, preferable below the 6852 level, negating that trend-day structure.
The 6852 level was defended early overnight (see Figure 2); however, the RTH session ended the daily OTFU after gapping lower, with sellers successfully defending against a reclaim of 6852—a shift in tone that triggered weakness. A triple distribution trend day to the downside was established, closing in the lower distribution and filling Monday’s true gap in the process.
Thursday’s Auction
Friday’s session was marked by overnight weakness, clearing all intraday downside targets toward the FDT at 6687. The RTH session then opened on another true gap down. The most bearish outcome when gapping lower is holding below the opening level, followed by breaking and holding below the overnight low—a classic gap-and-go scenario. Sellers did just that initially, tagging the high volume node at 6670 in the process; however, the failure to ultimately hold below the overnight low and the FDT at 6687 triggered a vicious short-covering rally as inventory corrected.
The price action remained contained within the prior week’s range, ultimately printing an inside bar. The monthly is forming an inside bar as well—the market is coiling for a directional move (see Figure 3).
Friday’s Auction
Price Action vs. Weekly Levels
I will continue to include the HTF chart from a good friend of mine, featuring levels generated by one of his models at the start of 2025. As you can see, this year’s price action has respected these levels remarkably well.
As discussed last week, the door to weakness would only open with acceptance back below the 6747–6787 area of interest, and this week—just like the prior one—closed right in this area following Friday’s reversal. This is clearly a short-term inflection point, and its alignment with the prior multi-week balance high adds another layer of significance.
The takeaway remains unchanged: failing to quickly reclaim this area would maintain downside pressure, potentially opening the door to another leg lower.
Higher Time Frame Levels
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 6795.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 3-Week → High: 6952 / Low: 6655.50
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 6591.75
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The main focus this week is to monitor whether sellers can do a better job of sustaining downside momentum than they did the previous week, having once again closed within the prior multi-week balance area. Notably, two of the past three weeks closed back inside that balance, yet all three weekly VPOCs from those weeks remain above it—making it crucial to monitor where value develops early in the week.
Immediate attention is on Friday’s short-covering rally, which resulted in the formation of a P-shaped profile. A strong response would see new buying interest emerge within Friday’s main distribution, targeting a reclaim of 6790 and opening the door to filling the gap at 6852.
Sellers aim to build on last week’s lower high on the daily timeframe, using Friday’s short-covering rally as an opportunity to reload at higher prices. Their ultimate target is the multi-week balance lows, attempting to end the pattern of higher lows on the monthly timeframe (6591.75).
The weekly Smashlevel is 6790—a key reference with multiple confluences, including the prior multi-week balance high, monthly VWAP, and value resistance of the recent 9 weeks. Break and hold above 6790 would signal strength, targeting the unfilled daily gap at 6852. Acceptance above 6852 would indicate further strength, opening the door for a move into the resistance area between 6905 and the Weekly Extreme High at 6935, where selling activity can be expected. Notably, this resistance area aligns with prior weekly value area highs, adding to its weight. And of course, the unfinished business at the all-time highs still lingers above.
Holding below 6790 would maintain downside pressure and target Friday’s B-period breakout singles at 6727. Acceptance below 6727 would signal weakness, targeting the HVN at 6670, as well as a move into the support area between 6610 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6580, where buying activity can be expected. This support area marks the lower end of the prior multi-week balance—a critical level for buyers to defend, as failure would trap a significant amount of long inventory overhead. Additionally, a break of 6591.75 would end the monthly one-time framing up, representing a notable achievement for sellers.
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6790.
Break and hold above 6790 would target 6852 / 6905 / 6935* / 6953 / 7000
Holding below 6790 would target 6727 / 6670 / 6610 / 6580* / 6520
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thanks Smash! Great write-up!