ES Weekly Plan | June 29 - 3 July, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week, we kicked off with a quiet session on Monday, with buyers holding the key 7540 level. Change took place on Tuesday, with a true gap down that remained unfilled for the rest of the week (7527.25).
The auction established a 3-day balance area between Tuesday and Thursday, a bearish consolidation until proven otherwise in the context of Tuesday’s true gap lower. As discussed in the prior Weekly Plan, acceptance below 7491 would signal weakness, a level that sellers defended throughout the consolidation. Additionally, the Weekly Extreme Low at 7405 capped the downside.
Friday’s session was quite interesting as it produced conflicting market-generated information. The session opened on a true gap down, which was filled immediately, something stronger sellers wouldn’t have allowed. Value was unchanged relative to Thursday’s session, but closing weakness developed during the last 30 minutes, often referred to as the M-period.
The key question now is whether value will follow price or price will return to value, making it key to monitor where value develops early in the week.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
FYI: During rollover, one-time framing and balance can look distorted because of the roll gap. I don’t back-adjust my charts, so expect these concepts to be temporarily skewed.
🟥 Daily: OTFD → Ends at: 7459.50
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 7-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this shortened week is whether sellers can sustain downside momentum following Tuesday’s true gap lower and Friday’s weak close, which printed below last week’s value area. While Friday’s close was weak, value remained largely unchanged relative to Thursday, making early-week value development important to monitor for directional clues.
A strong response would involve a reclaim of last week’s VAL at 7410, rejecting Friday’s closing weakness. This would open the door to a value traverse toward 7472 and a potential attempt to fill last week’s gap at 7527.25, where a gap-fill reversal, or lack thereof, will determine the next move.
Failure to do so, with value building below 7410 and acceptance of Friday’s closing weakness, would maintain downside pressure in the short term, targeting the multi-week balance lows, a crucial area for buyers to defend.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7410, last week’s VAL, aligning with Friday’s halfback. Break and hold above 7410, rejecting Friday’s closing weakness, would target last week’s VAH at 7472. Acceptance above 7472 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7530 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7560, where selling activity can be expected.
This resistance area, which coincides with the unfilled gap at 7527.25 and the prior ATH at 7540, is crucial for sellers to defend, as failure to do so would open the door for new all-time highs
Holding below 7410, accepting Friday’s closing weakness, would target Friday’s low at 7360. Acceptance below 7360 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7280 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7250, where buying activity can be expected.
This support area, which coincides with the YTD Low VWAP, is crucial for buyers to defend to avoid a multi-week balance breakdown.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7410.
Break and hold above 7410 would target 7472 / 7530 / 7560* / 7632 / 7648
Holding below 7410 would target 7360 / 7280 / 7250* / 7200 / 7160
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thanks Smash!!
Thanks Smash!