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ES Weekly Plan | June 26-30, 2023
Below are my expectations for the week ahead.
🟥 Daily: OTFD | Ends: 4408
🟩 Weekly: OTFU | Ends: 4381.50
🟩 Monthly: OTFU | Ends: 4062.25
Weekly Extreme High: 4470
Weekly Extreme Low: 4305
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow.
The chart does not include Monday's shortened session due to it being a holiday. Following three weeks of imbalanced trading activity, the previous week was relatively uneventful as trading remained confined to a narrow range. This resulted in an inside week, characterized by its price range being contained within the previous week’s range. Tuesday’s RTH session opened with a true gap to the downside, which remains unfilled (4451). On Thursday, the prior weekly support area (4400-4370) was tested, leading to a solid bounce. However, similar to the bounces observed throughout the week, it was met with sell activity, ultimately resulting in a close within the support area on Friday.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether the buyers can successfully defend the weekly one-time framing up by maintaining above 4381.50, following Friday’s close near the session lows. It's important to note that inside bars do not mark the end of one-time framing, thus the weekly is still up. With the daily one-time framing down, the primary objective for buyers will be to put an end to that pattern by breaching a previous day’s high. When it comes to inside weeks, the general guideline is to go with the break. Break to the upside, you want to be a buyer. Break to the downside, you want to be a seller. Monitor for continuation (Acceptance) or lack thereof. Lack of continuation (failed breakout), you want to fade and target the 5-day VPOC and the other side of the range.
The weekly level of interest is 4410, which represents the Monthly Extreme High of June. Break and hold above 4410 would target the resistance area from 4440 to the Weekly Extreme High 4470, where selling activity can be expected. Take note of the unfilled daily gap at 4451, and how the resistance area coincides with the upper end of the inside week, making it potentially less appealing to chase an upside break. However, with the prevailing trend being up, breaks of the Weekly Extremes are always more probable to occur on the upside.
Holding below 4410 would target 4370, which represents the breakout single prints from the 6/12 trend day. Break and hold below 4370 would target the support area from 4335 to the Weekly Extreme Low 4305, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this area coincides with the August high of 4327.50 and the roll gap (ESM23) at 4304.75. As I’ve mentioned the recent Weekly Plans, for any significant change to occur in the bigger picture, the sellers would need to break and hold below the Weekly Extreme Low, with a weekly close below it being preferred.
🟩 Upside: 4440 | 4470 | 4510 | 4540| 4580
🟥 Downside: 4370 | 4335 | 4305 | 4270 | 4240
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.