ES Weekly Plan | June 17-21, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 3D | H: 5454.50 L: 5408.50
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | 5334.50
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | 5036.25
Contextual Analysis
Starting from Monday, I will be transitioning to the ESU24 (September) contract. Please note that I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I have marked the settlements for both ESM24 (June) at 5437.50 and ESU24 (September) at 5502.25 from Friday’s session, reflecting a +64.75 point difference. I suggest marking 5437.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. The levels for next week are based on Friday’s session from the ESU24 (September) contract. Contract rollovers often lead to confusion. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to keep my past levels unchanged and simply deal with the roll gap. Regardless of whether you choose to back-adjust or not, the crucial point is that my weekly levels of interest remain the same.
During the previous week, the market continued to establish value at higher prices on Monday and Tuesday, following the double distribution trend day on Wednesday, June 5th. The lack of interest in filling Wednesday's poor structure, indicating an acceptance of higher prices, was a bullish development. The CPI data release triggered a breakout from balance, leading to the clearing of all weekly upside targets on Wednesday. Approaching within two ticks of the Weekly Extreme High of 5455 early in the week effectively stalled the price action, resulting in responsive two-sided activity for the remainder of the week.
For this week, our main focus remains on navigating the market day by day. Buyers continue to maintain control following Wednesday's CPI breakout and upside gap. Particularly noteworthy is the market's lack of interest in filling this gap later in the week, highlighting the absence of stronger sellers.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5502, representing Friday’s ESU24 (September) settlement. Break and hold above 5502, signaling strength, would target the next level of interest at 5530. Acceptance above 5530 would then target the resistance area from 5565 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5595, where selling activity can be expected. It’s worth noting that the Monthly Extreme High (June) is located at 5565, which adds an additional layer of confluence to the resistance area.
Holding below 5502 would target Friday’s ESU24 low at 5475. Break and hold below 5475 would target the support area from 5440 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5410, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with last week’s upper distribution, where the ESM24 roll gap is located.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5502.
Break and hold above 5502 would target 5530 / 5565 / 5595* / 5620 / 5655
Holding below 5502 would target 5475 / 5440 / 5410* / 5385 / 5358
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thanks Smash!