ES Weekly Plan | June 10-14, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 2D | H: 5385.50 L: 5341
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | 5246.75
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | 5036.25
Contextual Analysis
Last week, all eyes were on whether the closing strength from Friday’s 5/31 session would be accepted or rejected. Although Monday saw a dip below Friday's spike base of 5270, it was short-lived, and a V-shaped reversal quickly followed. Tuesday’s session, which printed a low of 5269.50, formed an inside day, making the conditions going into Wednesday’s session pretty straightforward. Wednesday’s session saw an inside day breakout, leading to a strong directional move that breached the 3-week balance high, and tagged the weekly resistance area. After reaching the weekly resistance area, as I mentioned, it can get tricky to navigate. The Weekly Extreme High 5390, Friday’s HOD 5385.50.
For this week, the main focus will be on the prior 3-week balance high of 5358. Buyers managed to break this level during Wednesday’s double distribution trend day, shifting the weekly to one-time framing up. Although they closed above it on Thursday, they failed to sustain the close above it on Friday—leaving an excess high and a potential failed breakout scenario in play. It's worth noting that both SPX and SPY closed above this reference, while ES did not. As we monitor for continuation or lack thereof, the strongest response from the market would involve continuing to establish value within Wednesday’s upper distribution, favoring a weekly imbalance continuation. Conversely, the weakest response would involve negating Wednesday’s trend day and returning to the high volume node (HVN) formed early in the week at 5285. Several catalysts are lined up for this week, notably CPI and FOMC scheduled for Wednesday, with PPI following on Thursday.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5358, representing both the previous 3-week balance high and the prior ATH, and coinciding with last week's most traded price by volume (VPOC). Notably, both SPX and SPY closed above this level, while ES failed to do so. Break and hold above 5358, signaling strength, would target the 5400 century figure. Acceptance above 5400 would then target the resistance area from 5430 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5455, where selling activity can be expected.
Holding below 5358, maintaining the look above and fail scenario (failed breakout), would target both the previous 2-month balance high and prior ATH at 5323. Break and hold below 5323 would target the support area from 5285 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5260, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the high volume node (HVN) from last week, established before Wednesday’s double distribution trend day—a crucial area for buyers to maintain.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5358.
Break and hold above 5358 would target 5400 / 5430 / 5455* / 5475 / 5500
Holding below 5358 would target 5323 / 5285 / 5260* / 5230 / 5205
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thanks Smash! Always enjoy these weekly outlooks!