ES Weekly Plan | June 15-19, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contract Rollover
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week kicked off with responsive buying on Monday after the overnight session came a few ticks shy of the 4-week balance low at 7354 (see Figure 1). We discussed the potential for a short-covering rally on Monday if sellers were unable to sustain immediate continuation lower. The session ultimately formed an inside day.
On Tuesday, buyers initiated an inside-day breakout early during RTH (see Figure 2). However, this attempt resulted in a vicious bull trap that led to a notable liquidation break. The market filled the gap at 7299.75 and completed a 5% correction off the ATH, reaching 7250, from which a 150-handle reversal unfolded.
Wednesday’s session formed another inside day, with sellers building value below the 4-week balance low at 7354 and closing the session at 7275, which also marked the Monthly Extreme Low. Reaching this extreme so early in the month highlighted the emotional nature of the price action. It was a very tricky week to trade, with large swings in both directions.
Change took place on Thursday after a failed inside-day breakdown attempt, followed by a news-driven short-covering rally. In the process, buyers reclaimed both the 4-week balance low at 7354 and the prior week’s low at 7380. Heading into Friday’s session, the key was whether buyers could shift the short-term tone with follow-through, or if the bounce would present an opportunity for stronger sellers to step in.
The Smashlevel, the pivot for Friday’s session, was the prior week’s low at 7380. Buyers defended this level both overnight and during the RTH session, leading to upside continuation and a return to value (see Figure 3). The medium-term value (20D VPOC) sits at 7433, while the short-term value (5D VPOC) sits at 7416. Friday’s session closed at 7435.
The key question in the short term is whether last week’s failed breakdown of the 4-week balance area will trigger a retest of the all-time highs, where unfinished business remains, or whether sellers can step in and form a lower high, making the prior ATH at 7540 an important reference to monitor.
I will be switching to the ESU26 (September) contract on Monday, but Monday’s plan will include daily levels for both the ESM26 and ESU26 contracts, as the continuous contract on TradingView typically rolls over on Tuesday.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
FYI: During rollover, one-time framing and balance can look distorted because of the roll gap. I don’t back-adjust my charts, so expect these concepts to be temporarily skewed.
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7366.50
🟥 Weekly: OTFD → Ends at: 7491
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7199.50
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contract Rollover
Starting Monday, I will transition to the ESU26 (September) contract.
For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I’ve marked Friday’s settlements for both ESM26 (June) at 7435 and ESU26 (September) at 7497.50, reflecting a +62.50 point difference (roll gap).
I recommend marking 7435 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which leaves a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference, neither approach is inherently superior; both have pros and cons.
For short-term traders, the impact is usually minimal since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this shortened week is to stay nimble, as Options and VIX expirations, the FOMC meeting, and contract rollover are all on deck, conditions that typically make order flow less reliable. From an auction perspective, the market saw a Look Below and Fail of the multi-week balance area last week after a 5% correction off the ATH.
The question now is whether buyers can capitalize on sellers’ inability to follow through and rotate back toward the unfinished business at the all-time highs, the opposite side of balance, or whether sellers can instead establish a lower high.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7481, Friday’s M-period Low (ESU26). Holding above 7481 would target the prior ATH at 7540. Acceptance above 7540 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7605 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7635, where selling activity can be expected. This would complete a full traverse of the prior weekly balance area, a common behavior following a failed breakdown.
Break and hold below 7481 would target the ESM26 settlement (roll gap) at 7435. Acceptance below 7435 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7365 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7335, where buying activity can be expected. This support area, which coincides with the prior weekly balance area, is crucial for buyers to defend, as failure to do so would negate the failed breakdown scenario currently in play.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7481.
Holding above 7481 would target 7540 / 7605 / 7635* / 7675 / 7735
Break and hold below 7481 would target 7435 / 7365 / 7335* / 7300 / 7250
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thanks Smash! Rollover sucks!