ES Weekly Plan | June 3-7, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 3D | H: 5299.50 L: 5205.50
🟨 WEEKLY: BALANCE | 3W | H: 5358.25 L: 5205.50
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU
Contextual Analysis
The previous week, though shortened, was quite eventful, with the main focus being on the highlighted outside day formed on May 23rd. Tuesday's and Wednesday's sessions traded within the range of the outside day, while sellers initiated a downside break on Thursday, effectively ending the weekly one-time framing up in the process. During the early stages of Friday’s session, sellers succeeded in driving prices lower, reaching and exceeding the Weekly Extreme Low of 5225. However, trading activity below 5225 was short-lived. Once this level was regained, a vicious reversal unfolded, leading to a close back within the outside day range. This highlights the importance of exercising caution when entering trades outside the Weekly Extremes.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether Friday’s closing move will be accepted or rejected—monitor for continuation or lack thereof. The market is currently in a state of balance on both the daily and weekly time frame, while the monthly continues one-time framing up. The strongest response from the market would involve maintaining above the 5280/5270 area, thus accepting Friday’s closing strength. This scenario targets the current all-time high, including the overnight ATH at 5368.25. The most favorable scenario for sellers is to quickly reject Friday’s move by establishing acceptance below the 5280/5270 area. This would open the door for a retest of Friday’s lows—a crucial area for buyers to defend.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5280/5270, representing a significant inflection point over the last couple of weeks. This area marks the location of Friday’s spike base and the end of the weekly one-time framing up. Holding above 5280/5270, accepting Friday’s closing spike, would target the high volume node (HVN) at 5323. Break and hold above 5323 would then target the resistance area from 5365 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5390, where selling activity can be expected. The RTH ATH is slightly below at 5358.25, and the ON ATH is at 5368.25.
Break and hold below 5280/5270, rejecting Friday’s closing spike, would target support area from 5230 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5205, where buying activity can be expected. This area marks the lower end of the 3-week balance area, coinciding with the MA50—a crucial area for buyers to maintain.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5280/5270.
Holding above 5280/5270 would target 5323 / 5365 / 5390* / 5420 / 5450
Break and hold below 5280/5270 would target 5230 / 5205* / 5166 / 5127 / 5101
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.