ES Weekly Plan | July 7-11, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week’s Recap
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Levels of Interest
Last Week’s Recap
Last week’s plan: ES Weekly Plan | June 30 - July 4, 2025
Heading into the shortened holiday week, the main focus was on whether buyers could sustain the prior week’s upside momentum following the outside week up that established a new all-time high (ATH). Despite the holiday schedule, the calendar was packed, creating potential for meaningful moves.
As discussed, a strong market was expected to build value above the prior ATH at 6166.50, favoring continued upside pressure—and that scenario unfolded as anticipated. From Monday through Wednesday, the market not only built value above 6166.50 but also established value above the prior week’s range—a clear sign of strength.
Change took place during Thursday’s shortened session, as the market opened with a true gap up, followed by immediate upside continuation—breaking away from the balance area created earlier in the week. In the process, the market reached the Weekly Extreme High at 6335 (HOD: 6333.25), which ultimately capped the week’s move ahead of the Friday holiday session.
On Friday, the market retraced Thursday’s gains—a weakness we will closely monitor for continuation or lack thereof going forward.
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 6292.75
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 6224.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 5870.50
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
This week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Thursday’s shortened session, during which the market saw a true gap up, printed a new all-time high (6333.25), and ultimately formed a double distribution on the weekly profile. Immediate attention will be on monitoring the weakness that emerged during Friday’s holiday session, when markets were closed, which essentially retraced Thursday’s gains.
A strong market would build value within last week’s upper distribution, favoring continued upside pressure and keeping buyers in full control of the auction. Failure to do so—meaning filling Thursday’s gap at 6276.50 and finding acceptance back within last week’s lower distribution—could introduce short-term weakness, potentially bringing a retest of the prior ATH at 6166.50 into play.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6276—the upper end of last week’s lower distribution, marking an unfilled daily gap. Holding above 6276 would maintain upside pressure, targeting the all-time high (ATH) at 6333. Acceptance above 6333 would signal strength, opening the door for a test of 6375, followed by a potential move into the resistance area between 6430 and the Weekly Extreme High of 6465, where selling activity can be expected.
Break and hold below 6276 would target last week’s VPOC at 6245. Acceptance below 6245 would signal weakness, opening the door for a move into the support area between 6195 and the Weekly Extreme Low of 6160, where buying activity can be expected. This support aligns with the prior all-time high (ATH) at 6166.50—a crucial area for buyers to defend. Failure to do so could open the door for a deeper correction, potentially targeting the unfilled gap at 6081.50.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6276.
Holding above 6276 would target 6333 / 6375 / 6430 / 6465* / 6500
Break and hold below 6276 would target 6245 / 6195 / 6160* / 6110 / 6081
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thank you as always! 6335 was a perfect target last week.
You've included Friday in your daily data!