ES Weekly Plan | July 28 - August 1, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week’s Recap + Additional chart
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Levels of Interest
Last Week’s Recap
Last week’s plan: ES Weekly Plan | July 21-25, 2025
Heading into last week, the main focus was on the 3-week balance area and whether buyers could achieve a decisive breakout after closing at its upper end the prior week. Immediate attention was on Friday’s poor low at 6323, which coincided with the upper end of the lower distribution from the Thursday’s trend day.
As discussed, a strong market would either ignore Friday’s poor low altogether or show little interest in Thursday’s lower distribution if that area is revisited—favoring continued upside pressure.
The market kicked off the week with an immediate breakout from the 3-week balance, but the attempt formed a poor high and closed back within the weekly balance area. Heading into Tuesday’s session, the key was to monitor Monday’s closing weakness, with a potential failed breakout scenario in play.
Tuesday’s session provided an excellent trading opportunity, as the key level of 6323 was tested. While the market cleaned up the poor low at 6323, there was no downside follow-through—sellers failed to gain meaningful traction within the lower distribution from the prior Thursday’s trend day, indicating the market remained strong.
The failure below 6323 marked the low of the week, and the rest of the week saw the market shift from balance to imbalance, maintaining upside pressure. The market is currently one-time framing up across all timeframes and closed out the week with a double distribution trend day on Friday.
If you catch yourself thinking, “These prices can’t keep going up,” remember this: markets don’t become “overbought” or “oversold.” It’s all about whether prices are accepted or rejected. As long as higher prices are accepted, the market can keep moving upward.
I also want to share a chart from a good friend of mine (see Figure 1), featuring levels calculated at the start of 2025. As you can see, price action this year has respected these levels remarkably well. The key takeaway is that we reached an area of interest last week at 6421–6401. What this means remains to be seen, but I’d keep a close eye on how the market behaves around this area going forward.
In the event of a deeper pullback, the obvious area that needs to hold is the prior all-time high from earlier this year, which roughly aligns with the 6142–6122 area—also the location of the year’s value area high. Acceptance below this area would mark the beginning of potential trouble for buyers.
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 6402.50
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 6318.75
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 5870.50
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
This week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain the directional move away from the prior 3-week balance area following last week’s breakout. Immediate attention is on Friday’s double distribution trend day—specifically, the single prints that separate the two distributions, which will provide early clues of strength or lack of (see Figure 2).
A very strong market would hold within Friday’s upper distribution—favoring continued upside pressure. The current all-time high at 6431 remains poor and is carried forward as unfinished business.
Failure to hold the upper distribution, meaning acceptance back into Friday’s lower distribution below 6416—would open the door for technical fills toward the breakout point. However, only acceptance back within the prior 3-week balance area would meaningfully shift the tone.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6416—the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution. Holding above 6416 keeps the upside pressure intact, with 6450 as the initial target. Acceptance above 6450 would signal strength and open the door for a move into the resistance area between 6510 and the Weekly Extreme High of 6540, where selling activity can be expected. Notably, 6540 also marks the Monthly Extreme High, adding another layer of significance.
Break and hold below 6416 would negate Friday’s trend day and target 6374—the area where change took place last week. Acceptance below 6374 would signal weakness and open the door for a move into the support area between 6335 and the Weekly Extreme Low of 6305, where buying activity can be expected. This support aligns with the medium-term value (20D VPOC), the MA20, and the upper end of the 3-week balance area—making it a critical area for buyers to defend. Failure to hold this area could trigger a full traverse of the 3-week balance area—a common outcome when breakouts fail.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6416.
Holding above 6416 would target 6450 / 6510 / 6540* / 6580 / 6620
Break and hold below 6416 would target 6374 / 6335 / 6305* / 6265 / 6225
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Ngl, i love these. Some NQ ones would be lovely too <3
Month end!