ES Weekly Plan | July 13-17, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week kicked off with strength on Monday as buyers reclaimed the prior week’s VPOC at 7556 (see Figure 1) and attempted to break out of the 3-day balance area that had formed during that same week.
Monday’s breakout attempt ultimately failed on Tuesday after the auction failed to gain acceptance above the prior week’s VAH at 7578 (see Figure 2). During the afternoon session, a clear absorption sequence developed, with aggressive buyers repeatedly absorbed by passive sellers, ultimately leading to closing weakness (see Figure 3).
Heading into Wednesday’s session, the Smashlevel (intraday pivot) was the prior weekly VPOC at 7556, which buyers needed to reclaim while defending the crucial 7534 level. Buyers successfully defended 7534 early overnight, triggering a strong responsive move higher (see Figure 4). However, the level was ultimately breached a couple of hours later following news headlines, leading to the RTH session opening on a true gap down (see Figure 5).
Despite Wednesday opening on a true gap down, sellers were unable to capitalize on the weakness, as they failed to gain meaningful downside traction below the prior week’s VAL at 7497 (Weekly Smashlevel).
Buyers needed a reclaim of the 7534 level on Thursday to signal strength, which they achieved overnight by building value above it (see Figure 6).
The 7534 level was retested during Thursday’s RTH session, a sequence in which aggressive sellers became trapped, resulting in a squeeze (see Figure 7). Thursday ultimately formed a double distribution trend day.
Heading into Friday’s session, the auction had developed a 7-day balance area. Buyers ultimately initiated a breakout from balance, with the intraday levels working exceptionally well throughout the session (see Figure 8 for a brief recap).
As with any breakout from balance, the key now is whether buyers can sustain continuation. Continued acceptance above the breakout area would target the all-time highs, while a failure to sustain the breakout would open the door to a traverse of last week’s value area.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7552.75
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 9-week → High: 7648.75 / Low: 7247.25
🟩 Monthly: OTFU → Ends at: 7247.25
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines, favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this week is whether buyers can sustain upside momentum following Friday’s breakout from the multi-day balance area. A breakout from balance is only the first step; the real test is whether the auction can transition from two-sided trade into imbalance by building value at higher prices. Early-week value development relative to last week’s VAH at 7605 will provide directional clues.
A strong response would be buyers holding above 7605 and building value there, confirming that the breakout has gained acceptance and increasing the probability of a move toward the all-time highs.
A weak response would be buyers failing to hold and build value above 7605, suggesting the breakout lacks conviction and increasing the odds of a rotation back into the previous balance range.
Keep in mind: while the daily timeframe is one-time framing up, the weekly timeframe remains in balance. This creates a tricky situation as the auction approaches the weekly balance highs.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7605, last week’s VAH, which aligns with the multi-day balance high. Holding above 7605 and accepting the breakout targets the non-back-adjusted ATH at 7648. Note: The SPX ATH is at 7620, equivalent to 7666 in ES, and is worth monitoring. Acceptance above 7648 would signal strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7735 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7765, where selling activity can be expected.
Such a move would effectively complete the 100% balance extension of the multi-day balance area. Additionally, a notable HTF level is located at 7735, adding another layer of significance to this resistance area.
Break and hold below 7605 would be a short-term bearish development, targeting last week’s VAL at 7532. Acceptance below 7532 would signal weakness and open the door for bearish continuation toward the support area between 7475 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7445, where buying activity can be expected.
This support area, which coincides with the multi-day balance low, is crucial for buyers to defend. Failure to do so would increase the odds of a revisit to the current multi-week balance low.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7605.
Holding above 7605 would target 7648 / 7735 / 7765* / 7800 / 7840
Break and hold below 7605 would target 7532 / 7475 / 7445* / 7360 / 7300
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Have a great week. There was no continuation of the upward momentum; we'll see if the CPI changes the scenario.
Thank you. Much appreciated.