ES Weekly Plan | January 13-17, 2025
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟥 DAILY: OTFD | ENDS: 5921.75
🟨 WEEKLY: BALANCE | 2W | 6068.25-5845.25
🟨 MONTHLY: BALANCE | TBD
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the market saw a true gap up on Monday, which immediately ended the weekly one-time framing down and filled the gap at 6063.25 in the process. On Tuesday, sellers not only filled the gap but also established a triple distribution trend day to the downside, closing back within the prior week’s range and regaining short-term control. On Wednesday, the market behaved as expected for a weak market, holding within Tuesday’s lower distribution, which ultimately set the stage for a continuation lower on Friday. Friday’s session tagged the Weekly Extreme Low at 5855, coinciding with the 5% correction level, which ultimately capped the downside pressure.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether sellers can sustain Friday’s directional move away from value, which ultimately established an outside week to the downside. Pay attention to the location of both last week’s and the prior week’s most traded price by volume (VPOC), as well as the closely aligned value area lows (VAL) from both weeks. Friday’s session saw a strong move away from that area, and now it's all about Acceptance vs Rejection. Sellers aim to build value at these lower prices, accepting the move, which would suggest that the downward auction is not complete. Failure to do so would open the door for a return to value. Several key economic events are scheduled for this week, including PPI on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, and Retail Sales on Thursday.
The weekly Smashlevel is 5875, representing the low from two weeks ago, which the market managed to close below last week, establishing an outside week down. Break and hold above 5875 would target the value area low (VAL) from both last week and the prior week at 5920. Acceptance above 5920 signals strength, targeting the resistance area from 5960 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5990, where selling activity can be expected. Notably, this resistance area coincides with the MA50 and the medium-term value (20D VPOC).
Holding below 5875 would target the unfilled election gap at 5813.50. Acceptance below 5813.50 signals weakness, targeting the support area from 5770 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5740, where buying activity can be expected. Notably, this support area aligns with the lower end of the lower distribution from the election week.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5875.
Break and hold above 5875 would target 5920 / 5960 / 5990* / 6030 / 6065
Holding below 5875 would target 5813 / 5770 / 5740* / 5721 / 5697
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Thank you, my friend! Great plan—let’s wrap up the week in profits.
Thank you!