ES Weekly Plan | February 17-21, 2025
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 22D | 6162.25-5950.25
🟨 WEEKLY: BALANCE | 9W | 6163.75-5813
🟨 MONTHLY: BALANCE | 3M | 6163.75-5724.25
Contextual Analysis
The prior two weeks opened with a true gap to the downside, and the previous week seemed poised to do the same after another Sunday gap lower. However, sellers failed to gain the same downward traction as in the previous two weeks, and the market returned within range before Monday’s RTH session opened. While Monday and Tuesday were relatively uneventful, Wednesday’s session attempted a directional move to the downside with a true gap down, which ultimately got filled as buyers successfully defended the immediate support between 6020 and 6004. Following sellers' failure on Wednesday, it was buyers' turn to attempt a move in the opposite direction on Thursday, resulting in a trend day and a close above the value area from the past three weeks. Now, we need to monitor for continuation or a lack thereof. While Friday’s session accepted higher prices, showing no interest in technical fills, the most traded price by volume for the week remains at 6089. Migrating the short-term value (5D VPOC) higher would be a bullish development.
For this shortened week, the main focus will be on whether buyers can sustain Thursday’s directional move away from a value area that has remained essentially unchanged for three consecutive weeks. Responsive two-sided activity has been the dominant theme in recent weeks, and the question now is whether the market is ready for initiating activity. A strong market would continue Friday’s behavior by accepting Thursday’s trend day, setting the stage for new all-time highs. Conversely, a weak market would negate Thursday’s trend day by establishing acceptance below 6114, opening the door for a test of the high volume node (HVN) at 6073 and potentially a full value traverse.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6114, representing Thursday’s breakout single prints. Holding above 6114 would target the current non-back-adjusted all-time high (ATH) at 6163.75. Acceptance above 6163.75 signals strength, targeting the resistance area from 6220 to the Weekly Extreme High of 6245, where selling activity can be expected. The non-back-adjusted ATH at 6163.75 remains weak and is carried forward as unfinished business. It also represents the balance high across all time frames, making it a key level to monitor for continuation or lack thereof if breached.
Break and hold below 6114 would put Thursday’s trend day into question, targeting the medium-term value (20D VPOC) at 6073. Acceptance below 6073 signals weakness, targeting the support area from 6030 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 6005, where buying activity can be expected. This support area aligns with the long-term value (90D VPOC) and is crucial for buyers to defend.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6114.
Holding above 6114 would target 6163 / 6220 / 6245* / 6275 / 6310
Break and hold below 6114 would target 6073 / 6030 / 6005* / 5967 / 5909
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Solid as usual Smashelito, much appreciated!!👌🏻👍🏻
Thanks Smash, great plan as always!