ES Weekly Plan | December 8-12, 2025
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review & Bonus Chart
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review & Bonus Chart
Last week’s plan:
Coming into last week, the key question was whether buyers could maintain upside momentum following the strong reversal that triggered after the look-below-and-fail of the October low. Strength required value to form above the unfilled gap at 6792.20, within the prior week’s upper distribution, while failure to do so would open the door for a revisit of last week’s VPOC at 6725.
Monday’s session ended the daily one-time framing up after breaking the prior day’s low, forming a 3-day balance area. The market entering a state of short-term balance was not a huge surprise, given the directional nature of the prior week. Responsive, two-sided activity was expected and delivered on Tuesday, as the market awaited further market-generated information to guide its next move.
Heading into Wednesday, the market was in a 4-day balance, during which buyers attempted a breakout. The move lacked meaningful upside pace, making trading tricky. That lack of pace continued on Thursday, as buyers struggled to gain traction; however, value remained unchanged relative to Wednesday’s session, suggesting buyers were building value above Monday’s and Tuesday’s ranges—signaling strength. Friday’s session saw a breakout with stronger pace; however, after clearing all intraday upside targets up to 6905, momentum stalled.
Overall, it was a fairly quiet week in terms of range, with price holding between the initial upside target at 6892 and the initial downside target at 6792, except for Friday’s probe above 6892, which ultimately failed.
Price Action vs. Weekly Levels
I will continue to include the HTF chart from a good friend of mine, featuring levels generated by one of his models at the start of 2025. As you can see, this year’s price action has respected these levels remarkably well.
The main takeaway from this chart is that buyers remain in control above the 6747–6787 area of interest, meaning caution fading—at least until this area fails. Don’t forget, unfinished business remains at the all-time highs, with an untested overnight ATH still in play.
Higher Time Frame Levels
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 6866.50
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 6812.75
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE → 2-Month → High: 6952 / Low: 6539
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The main focus this week is to monitor whether buyers can sustain upside momentum and continue the pattern of higher lows on the daily chart, following Friday’s session that retraced the opening strength. Immediate attention is on last week’s value area high (VAH) at 6868, which notably aligns with Friday’s lows as well as Wednesday’s and Thursday’s highs.
A strong response would involve building value above 6868 and rejecting attempts below it, indicating acceptance of Friday’s value, which shifted higher relative to recent sessions. This would set the stage for an upside continuation in an attempt to revisit the unfinished business at the all-time highs.
Note that Friday’s session looked above the daily lower high from November 12th and failed—a nuance sellers may seek to exploit. Ending the daily one-time framing up introduces the potential for a liquidation break, especially given the nature of last week’s slow upward grind. In the event of weakness, the unfilled gap at 6792.50 will be the next key decision point.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6868—last week’s value area high (VAH). Holding above 6868 would maintain upside pressure and target November’s high at 6909. Acceptance above 6909 would indicate further strength, targeting the overnight ATH at 6953, as well as a move into the resistance area between 7000 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7030, where selling activity can be expected.
Break and hold below 6868 would open the door to a liquidation break, targeting the unfilled gap at 6792. Acceptance below 6792 would signal weakness, targeting a move into the support area between 6755 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6725, where buying activity can be expected. This support area aligns with a weekly NVPOC, serving as a downside magnet on weakness. The structure down to this NVPOC is poor, meaning any pullback should be able to tag this reference. If it doesn’t, it provides valuable market-generated information suggesting that sellers are weak.
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6868.
Holding above 6868 would target 6909 / 6953 / 7000 / 7030* / 7070
Break and hold below 6868 would target 6792 / 6755 / 6725* / 6670 / 6592
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Always appreciate your guidance Smash!
Thank you Smash, very detailed plan as usual!