ES Weekly Plan | December 16-20, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 10D | 6111-6039.75
🟨 WEEKLY: BALANCE | 2W | 6111-6039.75
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5724.25
Contract Rollover
Starting Monday, I will transition to the ESH25 (March) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I've marked the settlements from Friday's session for both ESZ24 (December) at 6055.50 and ESH25 (March) at 6125.75, reflecting a +70.25 point difference. I recommend marking 6055.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled. The levels for next week are based on Friday's session for the ESH25 (March) contract.
Contract rollovers can often lead to confusion. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap on the chart. Regardless of your approach, my weekly levels of interest remain the same.
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the market opened with immediate weakness following the rejection of the weekly Smashlevel at 6104, which quickly filled the gap at 6066 and had already tested the prior all-time high (ATH) at 6045 by Tuesday's session. Sellers failed to gain traction below 6045, and the market was effectively confined between 6104 and 6045 for the remainder of the week.
For this week, the main focus will be on navigating the market day by day, with significant events lined up such as Retail Sales, FOMC, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP, and PCE, alongside the contract rollover and OPEX.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6132, representing Friday’s initial balance low (ESH25). Break and hold above 6132 signals strength, targeting an upside continuation toward 6175. Acceptance above 6175 would then target the resistance area from 6200 to the Weekly Extreme High of 6225, where selling activity can be expected.
Holding below 6132 would target the current ATH at 6111 (ESZ24). Acceptance below 6111 signals weakness, targeting the support area from 6065 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 6040, where buying activity can be expected. For a potential shift in the bigger picture, sellers would need to break and hold below this support area, which aligns with the prior ATH at 6045. Additionally, the roll gap at 6055.50 (ESZ24) is also situated within this support.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6132.
Break and hold above 6132 would target 6175 / 6200 / 6225* / 6250 / 6275
Holding below 6132 would target 6111 / 6065 / 6040* / 6015 / 5995
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Thank you
Thank you Smash!