ES Weekly Plan | August 26-30, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 5D | 5665.25-5573.50
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5573.50
🟨 MONTHLY: BALANCE | TBD
Contextual Analysis
Last week, the focus was on the highlighted triple distribution profile established two weeks ago, with particular attention given to the upper distribution. Holding within this upper distribution was considered the strongest market response, favoring an upside continuation. On Monday, the market saw an immediate upside continuation after holding the weekly Smashlevel of 5572 (LOD: 5573.50) and breaking out of the 3-week balance area. The market’s lack of interest in spending time in the upper distribution signaled strength. However, while Tuesday's and Wednesday's sessions saw higher highs and higher lows, they were marked by notable delta divergence, as observed in the daily plans. On Thursday, the market gapped higher but failed, triggering long liquidation and ending the daily one-time framing up. Notably, Thursday’s session found buyers at the upper distribution (5586), and Friday’s session then cleaned up Thursday’s structure.
For this week, the main focus will be on the current multi-day balance area between 5665 and 5573, where the market is taking a breather following an impressive 500-handle rally. Responsive activity is expected within this range, while a more decisive directional move would require acceptance outside its extremes. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the multi-day balance area and monitoring for continuation (acceptance) or lack thereof (rejection). If there is a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction. A balance breakout would target new all-time highs, while a breakdown could see the HVN at 5530 acting as a magnet.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5654, representing the previous week’s VAH (value area high). Break and hold above 5654 would set the stage for a balance breakout, targeting the unfilled daily gap at 5690.25 and the current ATH (all-time high) at 5721.25. Acceptance above 5721.25 would then target the resistance area from 5745 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5770, where selling activity can be expected. Note how this resistance area coincides with the 100% range extension from the current daily balance area at 5759.
Holding below 5654, suggesting a lack of initiating buyers, would target the previous week’s VAL (value area low) at 5615 and the high from two weeks ago at 5586. Acceptance below 5586 would open the door for a traverse of the upper distribution from two weeks ago, targeting the support area from 5555 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5530, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with both the composite HVN (high volume node) and the MA50. For any potential change in tone to occur in the bigger picture, sellers would need to break and hold below the Weekly Extreme Low, ideally with a weekly close below it.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5654.
Break and hold above 5654 would target 5690 / 5721 / 5745 / 5770* / 5800 / 5830
Holding below 5654 would target 5614 / 5586 / 5555 / 5530* / 5487 / 5455
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Thank you, wanted to ask when you the NQ levels and guidance will be available, you had mentioned about it a while back Thank you
Thank you!