ES Weekly Plan | April 7-11, 2025
Key Levels & Market Context for the Upcoming Week.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟥 DAILY: OTFD | Ends: 5314.50
🟥 WEEKLY: OTFD | Ends: 5739.25
🟥 MONTHLY: OTFD | Ends: 5997
One-time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar has a lower high, indicating a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis
The previous week was, of course, highly significant given how Thursday’s and Friday’s sessions unfolded—both featured large true gaps down that remain unfilled. To put last week’s directional move into perspective: Friday’s session closed 6.56% (!) below the Monthly VWAP and 572 handles below the most traded price by volume (VPOC) for the week. Additionally, the Monthly Extreme Low (5290) was breached, the Yearly Extreme Low (5103) was tagged in the closing session, and the VIX is above 45. Trading well below these value references and extremes creates a very complex situation. Even though sellers are firmly in control of the auction, one-time framing down across all time frames, it’s not an optimal location to initiate new shorts.
That said, if early attempts at downside continuation fail, a counter-move could be triggered—especially if last week’s low is reclaimed. However, don’t assume that a counter-move means a long-term low is in. Buyers would need to not only close Friday’s gap but also establish acceptance back within the value area on the volume profile from the ATH, included on the chart. Sellers, on the other hand, would prefer to see some two-sided activity at these lower prices, which would shift the short-term value (5D VPOC) lower—indicating acceptance of last week’s weakness and opening the door for continuation lower.
MONTHLY EXTREMES
Trading above 5290 with the VIX below 29.30 creates a more favorable environment for buyers in ES. Failure to do so would sustain downside pressure.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether sellers can sustain the directional move away from value, following not only Thursday’s true gap down, but also Friday’s, which ultimately established a double distribution on the weekly profile. Immediate attention is on Friday’s massive 211-handle range, which marks the lower distribution. The market is one-time framing down across all time frames. The key question is whether the market will continue its downside imbalance in search of value as it approaches key reference levels, or take a potential breather, considering the significant move since Wednesday. A weak market continues to build value within Friday’s range, and only acceptance back within last week’s upper distribution has the potential to shift that dynamic. CPI data is scheduled for release on Thursday, followed by PPI on Friday.
The weekly Smashlevel is 5103, representing both Friday’s low and the Yearly Extreme Low. Break and hold above 5103 would target Friday’s afternoon rally high at 5210. Acceptance above 5210 signals strength, targeting the Monthly Extreme Low at 5290, and the resistance area from 5335 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5375, where selling activity can be expected.
Holding below 5103 would target the April 2024 Low at 4991. Break and hold below 5991 would signal further weakness, targeting the 20% correction level at 4934 and the support area from 4880 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 4840, where buying activity can be expected. Also note the highly significant January 2022 High slightly below at 4808—a level many are watching. The same high for SPX is at 4818, which roughly corresponds to 4854 for ES.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5103.
Break and hold above 5103 would target 5210 / 5290 / 5335 / 5375* / 5428 / 5509
Holding below 5103 would target 4991 / 4934 / 4880 / 4840* / 4808 / 4767
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Thank you! Great stuff!!
Always grateful, brother. This might well be one of the most important plan in recent times. Incredible ranges, interesting times 🤞💫