ES Weekly Plan | April 27 - May 1, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week, the market consolidated the gains from the prior week’s historically one-sided auction. We kicked off the week with an inside day on Monday, while Tuesday’s session officially shifted the auction into a state of short-term balance after ending the daily one-time framing up. In the process, the true gap at 7089 was filled.
A True Gap in Market Profile occurs when the new session opens completely above or below the prior day’s entire trading range, meaning there is no overlap in traded prices between the two sessions.
A Normal (settlement) gap is when price opens away from the prior day’s close, but can still overlap or trade within the prior day’s range, meaning there is no structural separation in the auction.
A true gap is generally considered more significant, as it reflects a clearer shift in market tone and a potential transition into a new auction area.
The true gap at 7089, closely aligned with our HTF level at 7092, was an area where responsive buyers found interest during both Tuesday’s and Thursday’s sessions, resulting in solid upside moves.
Thursday’s session offered a textbook Look Above And Fail setup from an order flow perspective. An exhaustive move above a level of interest (1) was followed by selling aggression (2), with aggressive buyers then being absorbed by passive sellers on the retest of the key level (3), triggering a downside continuation (see Figure 1).
Heading into Friday’s session, the market had developed into a 5-day balance area. This was a bullish consolidation, as reiterated all week, as the market was building value and accepting higher prices, showing no interest in cleaning up the structure from the prior week’s significant rally. Both the 5D and 20D VPOCs shifted higher into this balance area, a typically healthy condition after a directional move from value, with value following price.
The Smashlevel for Friday’s session was 7151, and notably, aggressive sellers were absorbed by passive buyers in that area. The failure of sellers to gain acceptance below 7151 ultimately served as fuel for an upside continuation that resulted in a double distribution trend day, breaking out of the 5-day balance area in the process.(see Figure 2). A new ATH printed at 7200.50, which we carry forward as a poor high given the lack of excess.
While ES was consolidating most of the week, NQ was more directional, showing relative strength. We have an HTF level at 27930 for NQ, and if reached, I would monitor both NQ’s reaction at that level and whether ES responds.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 7145
🟩 Weekly: OTFU → Ends at: 7079.25
🟨 Monthly: BALANCE → TBD
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this week is to monitor whether buyers can maintain upside momentum following Friday’s multi-day balance breakout. The session formed a double distribution profile, and immediate focus will be on where value develops relative to the low volume node (LVN) at 7183 early in the week, which should provide important clues as to whether Friday’s breakout is being accepted or rejected.
A strong response would see value building within Friday’s upper distribution, accepting the breakout. This would set the stage for upside continuation, implying that price has not yet auctioned high enough to attract a meaningful opposing response.
Failure to do so, implying acceptance back within Friday’s lower distribution and inside prior balance, would open the door to a rotation toward the opposite side of balance, a common outcome following a failed balance breakout.
The weekly Smashlevel is 7183-7162, marking a LVN and HVN. Holding above 7183 would signal strength and target Friday’s 300% Initial balance extension at 7232, equivalent to SPX 7200. Acceptance above 7232 would signal further strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7320 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7350, where selling activity can be expected. The more impulsively this resistance area is reached, the less favorable it becomes to initiate new longs, given the underlying structure.
Break and hold below 7162, implying a rejection of Friday’s multi-day balance breakout, would target the HTF Level at 7092. Acceptance below 7092 would target structural fills toward the support area between 7040 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 7010, where buying activity can be expected. This area is a clear inflection point given its alignment with the prior RTH ATH at 7031 and the developing YTD value area high. Failure to defend it would put the multi-week balance breakout into question and open the door for a move back toward the high volume node at 6880.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 7183.
Holding above 7183 would target 7232 / 7320 / 7350* / 7375 / 7415
Break and hold below 7162 would target 7092 / 7040 / 7010* / 6924 / 6880
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thank you as always!
Curious, why would sellers step in at 7350?