ES Weekly Plan | April 15-19, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟥 DAILY: OTFD | ENDS: 5218.75
🟥 WEEKLY: OTFD | ENDS: 5274.25
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5063
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, sellers managed to break the 3-week balance area to the downside, shifting the weekly to one-time framing down for the first time since the low established October 27th last year. The pivotal question now is whether sellers can capitalize on this “shift in tone” by maintaining the downside pressure and targeting a deeper correction, or if buyers will use this weakness as a buying opportunity, ultimately targeting the unfinished business at the all-time highs.
For this week, the main focus will be on whether sellers can sustain the directional move away from the prior 3-week balance area following Friday’s double distribution trend day—resulting in a breakdown. Accordingly, we will monitor for continuation (Acceptance) or the lack thereof (Rejection). The market is one-time framing down on the daily and weekly time frame, while the monthly one-time framing up remains intact. The primary objective for sellers is to continue building value within Friday’s lower distribution, suggesting acceptance and signaling that the downward auction is not yet complete. Monitor sellers' ability to shift the short-term value (5D VPOC) lower, currently at 5205. The significant downside target is a cessation of the monthly one-time framing up (5063), located within the highlighted support area. The most bullish response would involve acceptance back within the prior 3-week balance area, indicating a failed breakdown and potentially triggering an impulsive upward move.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5194, representing the prior 3-week balance low. Break and hold above 5194, indicating a failed breakdown, would target the FOMC breakout point at 5247. Acceptance above 5247 would target the resistance area from 5265 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5295, where selling activity can be expected. A break of 5274.25 would end the weekly one-time framing down.
Holding below 5194, indicating acceptance, would target a downside continuation toward the ESH24 settlement at 5129, as well as the Monthly Extreme Low of 5115. Break and hold below 5115 would target the support area from 5070 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5040, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with several significant references, including the YTD VWAP at 5051, the 5% correction level at 5056, the 100% range extension at 5065, and the March low of 5063—a crucial area for buyers to maintain.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will observe 5194.
Break and hold above 5194 would target 5247 / 5265 / 5295* / 5323 / 5345
Holding below 5194 would target 5129 / 5115 / 5070 / 5040* / 4998
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
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Thank you as always!