ES Weekly Plan | April 13-17, 2026
Recap, Market Context & Key Levels for the Week Ahead
Welcome to this week’s plan. Inside, you’ll find a quick review of last week’s price action, key economic events, market structure, context for the week ahead, and the levels I’ll be focusing on. Let’s get prepared.
Contents
Last Week in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Market Structure
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Key Levels of Interest
Last Week in Review
Last week’s plan:
Last week, the key focus was whether buyers could maintain upside momentum following the double distribution trend day on Thursday, April 2. The key level was 6575, marking the breakout single prints separating the two distributions.
Sellers attempted to reject this trend day both pre-market on Monday and during Tuesday’s RTH session (see Figure 1), with both attempts being met by responsive buyers defending the key 6575 level.
Change took place after Tuesday’s close, as the market exploded higher following ceasefire headlines. In the process, the Weekly Extreme High at 6790 was tagged and exceeded. Liquidity was extremely thin, which made trading very tricky overnight (see Figure 2).
The key during Wednesday’s RTH session, and basically for the rest of the week, was to monitor the Weekly Extreme High at 6790, which aligned with the low of the distribution formed Wednesday pre-market (see Figure 3).
A quick trap below 6790 offered a great trade setup on Wednesday (see Figure 4).
Wednesday’s balanced session, in which the auction digested the large true gap higher, was followed by upside continuation on Thursday. A double distribution trend day formed after passive buyers defended the Smashlevel at 6805 (see Figures 5 and 6). The Smashlevel represents the pivot for the session and can be found in the daily plans we publish each day.
Friday’s session consolidated within Thursday’s upper distribution, offering strong opportunities around our key levels at 6880 (UT1) and 6848 (Smashlevel) (see Figure 7), especially 6880, where aggressive buyers got trapped (see Figure 8). The 6880 level is the YTD VPOC, which we have now returned to after trading 500+ handles lower the prior week, quite a move.
The weekly profile formed a double distribution following Wednesday’s significant true gap higher, with the 5D VPOC migrating into the upper distribution. The auction is back within the prior multi-week balance area from the start of the year, so the key question is whether buyers can continue to find acceptance here and traverse that balance range, or if we will get fills of the rather excessive gap. The size of the gap makes conditions tricky in the short-term, so stay nimble.
Last Week’s Levels in Review
Economic & Earnings Calendar
Central Standard Time
Earnings Whispers
Market Structure
🟩 Daily: OTFU → Ends at: 6846.25
🟨 Weekly: BALANCE → 6-Week → High: 6911.25 / Low: 6359.50
🟥 Monthly: OTFD → Ends at: 6911.25
Balance: A market condition where price consolidates within a defined range, reflecting indecision as the market awaits more market-generated information. We apply balance guidelines—favoring fade trades at range extremes (highs/lows) and preparing for breakout setups if balance resolves.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong upward trend.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): A market condition where each subsequent bar forms a lower high, signaling a strong downward trend.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The key this week is to monitor whether buyers can maintain upside momentum following Wednesday’s significant true gap higher. Interestingly, the auction has moved back into the prior multi-week balance area and the developing YTD value, catching sellers off guard.
A strong response would see value continue to build within the prior multi-week balance area, which notably aligns with the top of the gap, while quickly finding responsive buyers on any partial fills of the gap area. This would set the stage for a revisit of the all-time highs, which carry unfinished business.
Failure to do so, meaning acceptance into the gap area, would trap late buyers and open the door to a full gap fill. In such a scenario, the key is to monitor for a gap-fill reversal or lack thereof to gauge the state of the auction.
The weekly Smashlevel is 6880, the YTD VPOC, marking long-term value (90D VPOC). Break and hold above 6880 would signal strength and target the 2026 opening price at 6927. Acceptance above 6927 would signal further strength and open the door for bullish continuation toward the resistance area between 7005 and the Weekly Extreme High at 7035, where selling activity can be expected. This would complete a full traverse of the prior multi-week balance, where we still carry forward unfinished business, including a lack of excess and an untested overnight ATH at 7043.
Holding below 6880 would set the stage for rotational activity, targeting last week’s VPOC at 6815 and the lower end of last week’s upper distribution at 6790, notably aligning with the prior multi-week balance low. Acceptance below 6790 would signal weakness and open the door to a move into the support area between 6690 and the Weekly Extreme Low at 6660, where buying activity can be expected. Take note of the HTF level at 6692 and the unfilled gap at 6659, a crucial area for buyers to defend, as failure to do so would put them in a vulnerable position following last week’s shift in tone.
Visual Representation
Key Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 6880.
Break and hold above 6880 would target 6927 / 7005 / 7035* / 7092 / 7135
Holding below 6880 would target 6815-6790 / 6690 / 6660* / 6635 / 6575
*Weekly Extremes (defined by proprietary models). I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes act as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, which is far from ideal for making well-informed decisions.
Daily plan drops tomorrow. Recharge, reset, and let’s get ready to smash the week.
Thank you!
Thanks smash 💥