ES Weekly Plan | April 1-5, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟩 DAILY: OTFU | ENDS: 5303.25
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5263
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5063
Contextual Analysis
During the previous shortened week, the market established value at higher prices by remaining within the upper distribution from the prior week, serving as a bullish indication in the context of the FOMC breakout. The first half of the week was marked by structural fills, while the second half saw an upside continuation. However, the 5323 level continues to cap the upside, forming a weak, non-excess high that we carry forward as unfinished business.
For this week, the main focus will be on the previous week’s “inside week”, indicating a state of short-term balance in the market. The upper extreme has unfinished business, marked by a non-excess high, while breaking the lower extreme would end the weekly one-time framing up, as inside weeks technically do not bring it to an end. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the highlighted inside week and observing for continuation (Acceptance) or lack thereof (Rejection). If there's a lack of continuation following a breakout attempt, it can trigger moves in the opposite direction. Note the location where the inside week formed: within the upper distribution from the prior week, indicating that the FOMC breakout remains intact. With that being said, buyers, establishing value at higher prices, maintain control. Trouble would only start to kick in with acceptance back within the prior 6-day balance area <5245.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5323, representing the upper end of the inside week, which has been highlighted as a significant level over recent weeks and has capped the upside for the past two weeks. Break and hold above 5323, indicating a successful inside week breakout, would target an upside continuation toward 5355. Acceptance above 5355 would target the resistance area from 5375 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5405, where selling activity can be expected. Note the confluence with the 100% range extension from the inside week (5379).
Holding below 5323 would target Thursday’s spike base at 5294. Acceptance below 5294 would open the door for a test of the lower end of the inside week at 5263. Break and hold below 5263, indicating a successful inside week breakdown, would target the support area from 5245 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5215, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with two prior weekly VPOC’s and the FOMC breakout—a crucial area for buyers to maintain. For any significant change to occur in the bigger picture, the sellers would need to break and hold below the Weekly Extreme Low, with a weekly close below it being preferred.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will observe 5323.
Break and hold above 5323 would target 5355 / 5375 / 5405* / 5440 / 5470
Holding below 5323 would target 5294 / 5263 / 5245 / 5215* / 5193
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Thank you and happy Easter🐣🐇🍀
Thank you Smash!