ES Weekly Plan | March 25-29, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Market Structure
🟨 DAILY: BALANCE | 2D | H: 5322.75 L: 5289
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5195.25
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 4874.50
Contextual Analysis
During the previous week, the main focus was on whether sellers could sustain the downside momentum following the move away from the three closely clustered daily highs. On Monday, the market gapped higher, promptly rejecting sellers and opening the door for a cleanup of the unfinished business we have been carrying forward. The cleanup took place on Wednesday when the market experienced a breakout from the 6-day balance area, reaching the Weekly Extreme High of 5290. The significance of the 5323 level was highlighted in the previous weekly plan, reached on Thursday and marking the high of the week (5322.75). I suggest maintaining close monitoring of the 5323 level. Friday’s session returned to the Weekly Extreme High of 5290, highlighting the difficulties of chasing trades at unfavorable locations.
For this week, the main focus will be on the double distribution profile established last week, with a particular emphasis on its upper distribution, where Friday's session closed. The most traded price by volume (VPOC) from the previous week is located within the lower distribution at 5230. The strongest response from the market would involve maintaining within the upper distribution, favoring an upside continuation. Failure to do so would open the door for filling the low volume area (LVA) from the FOMC breakout, dividing last week’s distributions. The weakest response would see acceptance back within the lower distribution, effectively negating the breakout from the prior multi-day balance area.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5290, representing the lower end of the previous week’s upper distribution. Holding above 5290, signaling strength, would target a traverse of the upper distribution toward the significant level of 5323. Break and hold above 5323, indicating a successful breakout from the 2-day balance area, would target the resistance area from 5355 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5385, where selling activity can be expected. Note the confluence with the 100% range extension from the 2-day balance area.
Break and hold below 5290 would target fills of the low volume area (LVA) from the FOMC breakout toward the upper end of the lower distribution at 5250. Acceptance below 5250, signaling weakness, would target the support area from 5225 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5195, where buying activity can be expected. For any significant change to occur in the bigger picture, the sellers would need to break and hold below the Weekly Extreme Low, with a weekly close below it being preferred.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will observe 5290.
Holding above 5290 would target 5323 / 5355 / 5385* / 5410 / 5440
Break and hold below 5290 would target 5250 / 5225 / 5195* / 5157 / 5129
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
Economic Calendar
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves a high level of risk, with the potential for substantial losses. The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be a trade recommendation. It is the responsibility of the reader to make their own investment decisions and they should seek the advice of a qualified securities professional before making any investments. The owners/authors of this newsletter are not certified as registered financial professionals or investment advisers.
Last week closed at 5289.75!!!
Thank you Smash!