ES Daily Plan | September 9, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | September 8-12, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Quick update today after a rather uneventful session, which formed an inside day. The Smashlevel at 6494 played a pivotal role during both the overnight and RTH sessions. This level was important because it marked the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution. Buyers immediately reclaimed it overnight and defended it throughout the full session, offering some scalps and keeping Friday’s sellers in a tricky spot.
Today’s session formed an inside day, trading entirely within Friday’s range—more specifically, between Friday’s distributions. In the process, Friday’s poor structure was partially filled. In general, buyers aim to establish acceptance within Friday’s upper distribution, making 6523 a key level to reclaim, while sellers aim to return within Friday’s lower distribution, making the Smashlevel at 6494 a key level to break below.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6494—the upper end of Friday’s lower distribution. Holding above 6494 would target a cleanup of Friday’s poor structure toward 6523 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6542—the RTH ATH—under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold above 6494 would open the door to a traverse of Friday’s lower distribution toward 6465 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6451 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6494.
Holding above 6494 would target 6523 / 6542
Break and hold below 6494 would target 6465 / 6451
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.94 and 14.28. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6542 with VIX below 14.28 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6451 with VIX above 15.94 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you Smash.
You are the man…
Much love
Learning a lot..
6494 was a good pivot! Thanks Smash!