ES Daily Plan | September 30, 2025
Market Context & Key Levels for the Day Ahead
— For new subscribers
The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | Sep 29 - Oct 3, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session showed strength as buyers quickly reclaimed the UT1 at 6706—a key condition for a more directional move. Momentum carried into the European session, driving price to UT2 at 6731, the lower end of Tuesday’s upper distribution, where the upside stalled. During RTH, 6731 then served as a pivotal reference.
The overnight strength led the RTH session to open on a true gap up. During the initial balance, price was hovering around the opening level, with attempts to push higher being capped by the 6731 level. Change took place in the D-period, as the initial balance range was extended to the downside after the C-period failed to extend higher, leaving behind a poor high. The obvious downside target was filling the gap at 6703.75, marking Friday’s high. The most bearish outcome when gapping higher is acceptance back within the prior session’s range, which would completely negate the attempt to change the tone relative to the previous session. This ultimately failed to materialize, as sellers struggled to gain traction within Friday’s range, triggering a closing push higher.
The market continues to grind higher, cleaning up the poor structure left behind by last week’s weakness in the process. There is a small set of single prints left from Tuesday’s session at 6742.50. While the daily has been trending higher over the past few sessions, we can’t forget that we are still in a large daily balance area.
Moving forward, buyers aim to establish acceptance within Tuesday’s upper distribution, opening the door to cleaning up the all-time highs. On the other hand, sellers aim to gain acceptance back within Friday’s value, potentially setting the stage to revisit the high volume node at 6670.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6716—today’s initial balance low. Holding below 6716 targets the LVN at 6701 (DT1). Acceptance below 6701 signals weakness, targeting 6687 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6670—the HVN—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6716 would target the poor high at 6731 (UT1). Acceptance above 6731 would signal strength, targeting 6746 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6767 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6716.
Break and hold above 6716 would target 6731 / 6746 / 6767
Holding below 6716 would target 6701 / 6687 / 6670
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 17.02 and 15.22. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6767 with VIX below 15.22 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6670 with VIX above 17.02 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks Smash! 6731 was a banger!
Thank you so much Smash!! I live by your smash level.