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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | September 15-19, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
A quick reminder: I’ve transitioned to the ESZ25 (December) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. I recommend marking 6588.25 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
“Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which results in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference—neither approach is inherently better, as both have pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is generally minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. I typically scale back activity during rollover periods, as order flow tends to become noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The overnight session was rather uneventful, with trading activity mostly confined within Tuesday’s range. Sellers made several attempts to gain traction below the UT at 6663, but the pace was slow and each push was met by responsive buyers.
The RTH session opened within Tuesday’s range and value area, and in contrast to the overnight session, price action trended lower ahead of the FOMC meeting. The 2-day balance low was breached, and sellers subsequently defended it, leading to another leg to the downside. However, much like the overnight session, the pace remained slow. The market showed its typical volatility during the FOMC meeting; however, serious day traders usually go flat beforehand, leaving the price discovery process to less experienced participants. The Smashlevel at 6681 capped the upside, with all downside targets completed into the FDT at 6625. The price exploration below 6625 was not ideal to participate in, given the VIX holding above its support at 15.40. The market then reversed sharply, trapping sellers below 6625, with the resulting upside momentum capped as the VIX tagged that support.
An attempt by sellers to move lower post-FOMC, which cleared all downside targets, ultimately resulted in a significant excess low and a return within Monday–Tuesday’s range. Buyers now aim to reclaim 6681, which would open the door to resolving the unfinished business at the overnight ATH. Sellers, meanwhile, need acceptance below today’s halfback to potentially trigger fills of the excess low.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6649—today’s halfback. Holding above 6649 targets 6681 (UT1). Acceptance above 6681 signals strength, targeting the overnight ATH at 6696.75 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6708 under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to maintain 6649 opens the door to filling today’s excess low toward its halfback at 6625 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6611 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6649.
Holding above 6649 would target 6681 / 6696 / 6708
Break and hold below 6649 would target 6625 / 6611
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.66 and 14.76. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6708 with VIX below 14.76 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6611 with VIX above 16.66 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thank you! Sellers so weak.