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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | September 15-19, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESZ25 (December) contract. For reference, I do not back-adjust my charts. On the chart, I've marked the settlements from Friday's session for both ESU25 (September) at 6588.25 and ESZ25 (December) at 6645, reflecting a +56.75 point difference. I recommend marking 6588.25 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders choose to back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, which results in a visible roll gap. This is a matter of personal preference—neither approach is inherently better, as both have pros and cons. For short-term traders, the impact is generally minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. I typically scale back activity during rollover periods, as order flow tends to become noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
On Friday, the market consolidated within Thursday’s value area, suggesting bullish consolidation until proven otherwise. Buyers were active on dips (see Figure 1), and another ATH printed at 6606.
With key events this week—FOMC, VIXperation, and quarterly OPEX—alongside the complexities of contract rollover, bold market predictions are best avoided in favor of a steady, day-by-day approach, which is our main principle regardless of market conditions.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6645—Friday’s ESZ25 settlement. Holding below 6645 would target the 200% IB extension at 6619 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at the support area between 6595 and 6588—Friday’s ESU25 settlement—under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6645 would target Friday’s VAH at 6654. Acceptance above 6654 signals strength, targeting the 200% IB extension at 6673 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6700 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6645.
Break and hold above 6645 would target 6654 / 6673 / 6700
Holding below 6645 would target 6619 / 6595 / 6588
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 15.60 and 13.92. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6700 with VIX below 13.92 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6588 with VIX above 15.60 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESU25 contract:
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6588.
Break and hold above 6588 would target 6597 / 6616 / 6643
Holding below 6588 would target 6562 / 6538 / 6531
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