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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contract Rollover
As mentioned in the Weekly Plan, starting tomorrow, I will transition to the ESZ26 (December) contract.
As always, I do not back-adjust my charts. I’ve marked Friday’s settlements on the chart for both ESU26 (September) at 7659.50 and ESZ26 (December) at 7727.25, reflecting a +67.75 point difference (roll gap).
I recommend marking 7659.50 on your chart, as roll gaps often tend to get filled.
Contract rollovers can be confusing. While some traders back-adjust their charts, I prefer to leave historical levels unchanged, resulting in a visible roll gap. This is purely a matter of personal preference; neither approach is inherently superior, and both have their pros and cons.
For short-term traders, the impact is minimal, since we navigate the market day by day. During rollover periods, I typically scale back activity because order flow becomes noticeably less reliable.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
The main objective for buyers on Friday was to put an end to the pattern of lower highs on the daily and negate Thursday’s true gap down at 7628 (UT1) in the process, which had the potential to trigger short-covering. The 7628 level was reclaimed overnight, leading to upside continuation. Our final upside target at 7672 (FUT) was reached before the RTH open, where upside momentum stalled, making the RTH session rather uneventful.
Session Recap
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, several major events are on deck this week, including OPEX, VIX expiration, the FOMC meeting, and contract rollover. These conditions typically make order flow less reliable, making it particularly important to stay nimble.
Intraday strength would be indicated by a reclaim of 7735 (UT1), while weakness would be signaled by a break and hold below 7690 (DT1).
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7711, today’s VAH. Holding above 7711 would signal stability, targeting 7735 (UT1). Acceptance above 7735 would signal intraday strength, targeting the daily NVPOC at 7757 (UT2), with 7775 (FUT) serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7711 shifts focus to the HVN at 7690 (DT1), with 7659 (FDT), the roll gap, serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7711.
Holding above 7711 would target 7735 / 7757 / 7775
Break and hold below 7711 would target 7690 / 7659
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.62 and 15.06. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7775 with VIX below 15.06 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7659 with VIX above 16.62 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Adjusted levels for traders still on the ESU26 contract:
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7643.
Holding above 7643 would target 7667 / 7689 / 7707
Break and hold below 7643 would target 7622 / 7590