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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | September 1-5, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
On Thursday, a breakout attempt was initiated, cleaning up the overnight ATH (6508.75) in the process. The key heading into Friday’s session was to monitor for continuation or lack thereof. The breakout ultimately failed, with Friday’s session establishing a b-shaped profile, indicative of long liquidation.
As discussed in the Weekly Plan, the key question now is whether sellers can capitalize on Thursday’s failed breakout to apply downside pressure. Immediate focus is on the 6460–6480 range for early clues.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 6480—Friday’s halfback and last week’s VWAP. Holding below 6480 would target Friday’s value support at 6460 (DT1). Acceptance below 6460 would signal weakness, targeting last week’s low at 6445 (DT2), with a final downside target (FDT) at the breakout single prints at 6428 under sustained selling pressure.
On the flip side, reclaiming and holding above 6480 would signal strength, targeting 6502 (UT1), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6521 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6480.
Break and hold above 6480 would target 6502 / 6521
Holding below 6480 would target 6460 / 6445 / 6428
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.16 and 14.56. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6521 with VIX below 14.56 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6428 with VIX above 16.16 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.