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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction. Discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the Weekly Plan for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Catalysts
Contextual Analysis & Plan
Friday’s session saw a true gap higher after successfully reclaiming Wednesday’s spike base at 7747 overnight. The final upside target at 7794 (FUT) was tagged pre-open, a level above which buyers struggled to gain traction during the RTH session. The C-period saw a Look Above and Fail of the Initial Balance range, followed by weakness in the D-period. After the liquidation break, the auction was marked by two-sided trade, essentially filling the poor NFP structure from the overnight session.
Session Recap
Friday’s true gap higher remained unfilled; however, the session lacked directional conviction and ultimately closed below its opening print.
In the short term, I’m focused on two levels: Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7783, which aligns with last week’s VAH, and the base of Friday’s excess low at 7764.
Reclaiming 7783 would be a short-term bullish development and open the door to a revisit of Friday’s high, while failure to defend 7764 would open the door to filling Friday’s gap at 7741.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 7764, the base of Friday’s excess low. Holding above 7764 signals stability and targets Friday’s afternoon rally high at 7783 (UT1), where a potential LAAF is of interest. Acceptance above 7783 would signal intraday strength, targeting 7809 (UT2), with 7838 (FUT), the prior ATH, serving as the final upside target under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to hold 7764 shifts focus to the unfilled bull gap at 7741 (DT1), where a potential LBAF is of interest, with 7709 (FDT) serving as the final downside target under sustained selling pressure.
Visual Representation
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 7764.
Holding above 7764 would target 7783 / 7809 / 7838
Break and hold below 7764 would target 7741 / 7709
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 16.04 and 14.58. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 7838 with VIX below 14.58 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 7709 with VIX above 16.04 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Thanks you! Let's Smash!
hey smash, dont know if you read these,
do you used fixed value area? if so, why? arent fixed value areas useless if the profile doesnt have a proper, even distribution? would it be a better approach to mark out extremes of balance?