ES Daily Plan | October 4, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
I'm currently away from my desk and won’t be trading tomorrow, so I’ll keep this update brief, providing the usual levels of interest for those trading. There's not much to add anyway, as the market remains within Tuesday's main distribution, with value basically unchanged for three days.
Today’s session formed an inside day, suggesting short-term balance, with the market continuing to trade within Tuesday’s main distribution. The general guideline suggests going with the break of the inside day and observing for continuation or lack thereof. Tomorrow’s NFP report, of course, serves as the potential catalyst for a directional move.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5772. Holding below this level signals weakness, targeting the support area between 5731 and 5721, with a final target at 5698 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5772 would target the resistance area between 5799 and 5809, effectively completing Wednesday’s imbalanced profile to the upside and filling Tuesday’s A-period excess in the process.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5772.
Break and hold above 5772 would target 5799 / 5809
Holding below 5772 would target 5731 / 5721 / 5698
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.78 and 19.18. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5809 with VIX below 19.18 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5698 with VIX above 21.78 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Hi Smash, wonderful work. Your price help me every day. Thank you.
I am wondering how do you determine the vix price as there is no vol.
Hi Smash. Can you share your view on continuation when we break out of balance? I struggle with continuation or lack of it. How do you see in your 30 minute periods. Thank you for sharing your insights and market nuances.