ES Weekly Plan | Sep 30 - Oct 4, 2024
My expectations for the upcoming week.
Visual Representation
Economic Calendar
Market Structure
🟩 DAILY: OTFU | ENDS: 5782
🟩 WEEKLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5754.75
🟩 MONTHLY: OTFU | ENDS: 5410.25
Contextual Analysis
The previous week was particularly tricky in terms of price action. The main focus was on buyers' ability to maintain their position above the LVN at 5740, which separates the two distributions from two weeks ago. Successfully achieving this would favor upside continuation, as discussed in the previous Weekly Plan. Responsive two-sided activity was the main theme from Monday through Wednesday, successfully shifting the 5D VPOC higher.
On Thursday, the market attempted a breakout from the 5-day balance area, but this effort ultimately failed, marking the start of the tricky part of the week. The failed breakout should have triggered a counter-move to the opposite side of the balance area, but it did not, signaling a lack of stronger sellers. This lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers continued on Friday, which formed an inside day and resulted in a close back within the 5-day balance area. That said, buyers remain in control overall; however, the downside risk is a liquidation break of weak longs, which could serve as an opportunity for stronger buyers to enter. Generally, buyers are not in huge trouble as long as the highlighted weekly support area remains intact.
For this week, the main focus will be on buyers' ability to maintain short-term control of the auction, particularly after Thursday's breakout attempt, which ultimately lacked upside continuation. Immediate attention is on Friday's session, which formed an inside day—defined by its price range being contained within Thursday's range. A breakdown from the inside day, signaling an end to the daily one-time framing up, has the potential to attract sellers who were notably absent after Thursday's failed breakout, or at the very least, trigger stops. Failure to break the pattern of higher lows removes the potential for change, indicating that buyers remain in control. Additionally, a new ATH was achieved during an overnight session (5830), which serves as a reference to carry forward.
The weekly Smashlevel (Pivot) is 5782, representing both Friday’s low and a LVN from the previous week. Holding above 5782, thus maintaining the daily one-time framing up, would target the overnight ATH at 5830. Acceptance above 5830 would then target the resistance area from 5885 to the Weekly Extreme High of 5910, where selling activity can be expected.
Break and hold below 5782 has the potential to attract sellers, targeting the LVN at 5740. Acceptance below 5740 signals weakness, targeting the support area from 5700 to the Weekly Extreme Low of 5675, where buying activity can be expected. Note how this support area coincides with the lower end of the lower distribution from two weeks ago, which includes a weekly NVPOC and Wednesday’s FOMC, making it a crucial area for buyers to defend.
Levels of Interest
In the upcoming week, I will closely observe the behavior around 5782.
Holding above 5782 would target 5830 / 5885 / 5910* / 5939 / 5965
Break and hold below 5782 would target 5740 / 5700 / 5675* / 5629 / 5585
*Weekly Extremes. I exercise caution when initiating trades outside the Weekly Extremes to avoid making impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations. Essentially, the Weekly Extremes serve as a safeguard against emotionally-driven trades, a state that is less than ideal for making well-informed trading decisions.
As usual, a detailed daily plan will be published tomorrow. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Quality stuff as always! Thank you!
Your weekly level is amazing!