ES Daily Plan | October 28, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
On Thursday, the market formed an inside day that broke to the upside on Friday. However, Friday’s true gap higher ultimately failed after tagging our intraday targets, resulting in a double distribution trend day to the downside, with single prints in the H-period separating the two highlighted distributions.
The strongest response from the market would be to reject Friday’s closing weakness and return within the upper distribution, where value was established in the early part of last week. Failure to do so, remaining within the lower distribution where value was established later in the week, would maintain downside pressure.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5860. Holding below this level would target the prior 2-week balance high at 5827, aligning with the Monthly VWAP. Acceptance below 5827 would then target 5801, with a final target at 5785 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5860 would target Friday’s afternoon rally high at 5883, with a final target at 5900 under sustained buying pressure, effectively completing a full traverse of Friday’s upper distribution.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5860.
Break and hold above 5860 would target 5883 / 5900
Holding below 5860 would target 5827 / 5801 / 5785
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.74 and 18.92. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5900 with VIX below 18.92 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5785 with VIX above 21.74 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
How do you guys play the levels? Let’s say you miss the Smashlevel or it moves past it, etc. Let’s say it’s Trading near the other targets, do you initiate there? Wait to see if it goes back to the Smashlevel?
Just trying to find ways on how to play the levels effectively without taking unnecessary trades.
Thank you so much, Smash! Interesting week🔥🔥🔥