ES Daily Plan | October 25, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
Wednesday’s closing session saw a reversal from the highlighted weekly support area, and the upside momentum continued during today’s overnight session, forming a triple distribution profile. The upper distribution was established above the highlighted resistance area and the 5858 intraday pivot. However, just before the RTH open, the market pulled back, leading to an opening below the crucial 5858 level.
During the initial periods of the RTH session, sellers defended the resistance area between 5858 and the previous week’s low of 5850, ultimately leading to a test of the key 5827 level in the E and F-periods, marking the prior 2-week balance high. This level, aligned with the Monthly VWAP for added confluence, held as support, preventing an intraday bearish confirmation. The VIX nearly reached its resistance level of 20.34 during this downward sequence, with a HOD of 20.24. Throughout the remainder of the session, buyers continued to attack resistance, though sellers held firm. The 5D VPOC (short-term value) has shifted lower from 5896 to 5848, which is bearish in the context of Wednesday’s breakdown from the multi-day balance area.
Today’s session formed an inside day within the previous day’s value area. Sellers consistently defended the resistance area between 5858 and 5850 throughout the session—an area that remains crucial in the short term. The conditions are straightforward: The 5858 level, which aligns with the Weekly VWAP (5861), is a low volume node on the short-term volume profile, highlighted in blue. Staying below this level maintains downside pressure, while acceptance above it raises questions about the balance breakdown.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5858. Holding below this level would target the prior 2-week balance high at 5827, aligning with the Monthly VWAP. Acceptance below 5827 would then target 5811, with a final target at 5785 under sustained selling pressure. Failure to hold below 5858 would open the door for a test of the daily NVPOC at 5879, with a final target at 5896 under sustained buying pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5858.
Break and hold above 5858 would target 5879 / 5896
Holding below 5858 would target 5827 / 5811 / 5785
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.26 and 17.88. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5896 with VIX below 17.88 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5785 with VIX above 20.26 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Flawless work!
Thank you so much for what you do. Simple, to the point, contextual, and actionable.