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The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary intraday levels I focus on. To avoid impulsive decisions at poor trade locations, I follow a simple but effective rule: exercise caution when initiating trades outside of these yellow levels.
This means I’m cautious about chasing longs above the Final Upside Target (FUT) and shorts below the Final Downside Target (FDT). It’s important to understand that not chasing does not imply initiating a trade in the opposite direction — discipline over impulse.
Be sure to review the ES Weekly Plan | October 13-17, 2025 for a broader perspective, key levels, and market expectations for the week ahead.
Contextual Analysis & Plan
There isn’t much to discuss after today’s session, which opened within Friday’s range and triggered short-covering. The final upside target (FUT) at 6670, marking a HVN, was quickly tagged and exceeded in the overnight session. The VIX held below its support level at 20.08 for most of the RTH session, with buyers defending 6670, making it a tricky environment for sellers.
Friday’s after-hours flush was rejected today as price opened back within Friday’s range, triggering short-covering. The session formed an inside day, with sellers responsive within Friday’s D-period single prints.
The key question now is whether the market continues to clean up Friday’s structure or if today’s bounce attracts stronger sellers. In the short term, sellers remain in control as long as acceptance is not established back within the prior multi-day balance area.
Today’s inside-day extremes serve as potential areas for better opportunities, while price action within the range remains tricky, as it coincides with a notable high volume node.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is 6682—the L-period pullback and LVN on the composite profile. Holding above 6682 targets the upper end of today’s inside day and Friday’s distribution at 6706 (UT1). Acceptance above 6706 would signal strength, targeting 6724 (UT2), with a final upside target (FUT) at 6750—the Weekly Extreme High—under sustained buying pressure.
On the flip side, failure to maintain 6682 would open the door to revisiting today’s poor low at 6662 (DT1), with a final downside target (FDT) at 6642 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow’s session, I’ll closely observe the behavior around 6682.
Holding above 6682 would target 6706 / 6724 / 6750
Break and hold below 6682 would target 6662 / 6642
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 20.42 and 17.64. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 6750 with VIX below 17.64 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 6642 with VIX above 20.42 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
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