ES Daily Plan | October 14, 2024
My preparations and expectations for the upcoming session.
For new followers: The yellow levels highlighted at the bottom left of the chart are the primary levels that I focus on intraday. My strategy for preventing impulsive decisions at unfavorable locations involves following a simple yet effective rule of exercising caution when initiating trades outside of the yellow levels. This implies that I am cautious chasing longs above the final yellow upside target and shorts below the final yellow downside target. It is crucial to understand that refraining from chasing a trade is not an automatic invitation to initiate a trade in the opposite direction.
Visual Representation
Contextual Analysis
On Wednesday, a breakout from the multi-day balance area was initiated, but there was no immediate continuation on Thursday, resulting in an inside day. However, Friday's session saw follow-through, forming a double distribution trend day. The key now is to monitor how good of a job the market does in staying within the highlighted upper distribution. The current ATH at 5868.25 is poor.
In terms of levels, the Smashlevel is at 5846, marking both Friday’s afternoon pullback low and halfback. Holding above this level signals strength, targeting the 50% range extension at 5878, with a final target at 5910 under sustained buying pressure. Failure to hold above 5846 would target fills of Friday’s structure toward the prior 2-week balance high at 5827, with a final target at 5800 under sustained selling pressure.
Levels of Interest
Going into tomorrow's session, I will closely observe the behavior around 5846.
Holding above 5846 would target 5868 / 5878 / 5910
Break and hold below 5846 would target 5827 / 5800
Additionally, pay attention to the following VIX levels: 21.88 and 19.02. These levels can provide confirmation of strength or weakness.
Break and hold above 5910 with VIX below 19.02 would confirm strength.
Break and hold below 5800 with VIX above 21.88 would confirm weakness.
Overall, it's important to exercise caution when trading outside of the highlighted yellow levels. A non-cooperative VIX may suggest possible reversals i.e trade setups.
Weekly Plan
Make sure to review the Weekly Plan, which provides a broader perspective and highlights key levels of interest to observe in the upcoming week.
Thank you!